Author Abstract
We provide one of the first tests of recent macro global-game crisis models that show that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises (e.g. Angeletos and Werning 2006; Morris and Shin 2002, 2003). In these models, self-fulfilling crises (independent of fundamentals) can occur only when publicly disclosed fundamental signals have high precision; fundamentals are thus the sole driver of crises in low-precision settings. We affirm this proposition on 39 currency crises by exploiting a key publicly disclosed fundamental driving financial markets, namely accounting data. We find that fundamental accounting signals are stronger in-sample predictors of crises in low-precision countries.
Paper Information
- Full Working Paper Text
- Working Paper Publication Date: April 2011
- HBS Working Paper Number: 11-103
- Faculty Unit(s): Accounting and Management