- 11 Jul 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Channeled Attention and Stable Errors
As humans we are surprisingly good at neglecting unexpected information that conflicts with what we “know” to be true. This paper develops a framework for predicting when we are more likely to “get a clue” despite this cognitive barrier to discovering our own mistakes.
- 05 Jul 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Buying the Verdict
This paper documents systematic evidence that firms engage in specialized, locally targeted advertising when taken to a court trial in a given location. Policymakers should consider what impact such targeted advertising is having—and whether it is a desired impact—on juries and the judicial process more generally.
- 27 Jun 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Negotiating a Better Future: How Interpersonal Skills Facilitate Inter-Generational Investment
For many girls in developing countries, early adolescence is a time of key challenges: school dropout rates rise, and social and economic pressures increase for marriage and motherhood. This randomized control trial involving Zambian adolescent girls finds that negotiation skills can help them navigate these challenges. Girls taught negotiation skills had significantly better educational outcomes over the next three years.
- 26 Jun 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves
The global financial crisis and its aftermath had a dramatic impact on the solvency of pension funds and insurance companies. Drawing on a large cross-section of countries, this paper shows the importance of pension and insurance companies in determining the yields on long maturity bonds around the world.
- 20 Jun 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Show or Tell? Improving Agent Decision Making in a Tanzanian Mobile Money Field Experiment
Mobile money is popular in developing economies but many agents do not maintain proper inventory levels. This paper, based on a study of 4,771 agents in Tanzania, shows how training and ongoing guidance improve their inventory management. Agents who get in-person training and explicit inventory recommendations tend to stock out less.
- 18 Jun 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy
This paper sheds new light on connections between financial markets and the macroeconomy. It shows that investors’ appetite for risk—revealed by common movements in the pricing of volatile securities—helps determine economic outcomes and real interest rates.
- 13 Jun 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Learning to Become a Taste Expert
How should we learn to discriminate a fine wine or chocolate? Tradition says use a flavor wheel and map the taste into vocabulary. We find that works for novices, but, beyond a point, it is counterproductive. Enthusiasts perform more like experts when they abandon language and just “draw the shape” of the taste.
- 06 Jun 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Complex Disclosure
This study shows that companies looking to hide unfavorable information might strategically be making contract terms unnecessarily complex, harming consumers and undermining the effectiveness of disclosure. These results highlight a role for regulation that would encourage simpler forms of disclosure.
- 25 May 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Trust and Disintermediation: Evidence from an Online Freelance Marketplace
Intermediaries such as brokers, distributors, and agents all face a risk of disintermediation, when two sides circumvent the intermediary and thus avoid the intermediary’s fees. This study of a large online freelance marketplace finds that enhanced user trust increases this risk, alongside other contributing factors like being geographically near one another, having easily divisible jobs, and clients themselves having high ratings.
- 21 May 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Business, Governments, and Political Risk in South Asia and Latin America Since 1970
This study shows how perceptions of political risk by business leaders in emerging markets have differed between regions. For Latin Americans, macroeconomic and policy turbulence were the biggest sources of risk. For South Asians, excessive bureaucracy was the biggest source of risk. The study is based on a unique Harvard Business School oral history database.
- 13 May 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Corporate Tax Cuts Increase Income Inequality
This paper examines corporate tax reform by estimating the causal effect of state corporate tax cuts on top income inequality. Results suggest that, while corporate tax cuts increase investment, the gains from this investment are concentrated on top earners, who may also exploit additional strategies to increase the share of total income that accrues to the top 1 percent.
- 29 Apr 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Analyzing the Aftermath of a Compensation Reduction
This study of the effects of compensation cuts in a large sales organization provides a unique lens for analyzing the link between compensation schemes, worker performance, and turnover.
- 27 Apr 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence
People are most at risk of making overly positive self-assessments when their assessment criteria are not clearly defined. Yet, even within ambiguous domains, providing clearly defined criteria for what makes a productive employee, an effective leader, and an efficient team, may help people better calibrate their self-perceptions with reality.
- 22 Apr 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Immigrant Entrepreneurship in America: Evidence from the Survey of Business Owners 2007 & 2012
How do businesses created by immigrants differ from those of natives? This study using the 2007 and 2012 Survey of Business Owners records finds that while immigrant-owned businesses have a modestly different industry composition than native-owned businesses, there are ten-fold differences across states in terms of the share of businesses owned by immigrants.
- 20 Apr 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Executive Education in the Digital Vortex: The Disruption of the Supply Landscape
The competitive landscape of executive education is feeling a tectonic shift even as demand grows for managerial skills. This study maps and analyzes the major providers of executive education programs, including business schools, consultancies, and corporate universities, to better understand and explain the industry’s present and future dynamics.
- 17 Apr 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Digital Innovation with High Costs of Entry: Evidence from Software-Driven Medical Devices
Although technology shifts often allow new entrants to edge into a market, established firms seem to be maintaining leadership in the medical devices industry, where software integration is increasingly important.
- 31 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
Over the last 20 years, shortcomings of classical asset-pricing models have motivated research in developing alternative methods for measuring ex ante expected stock returns. This study evaluates the main paradigms for deriving firm-level expected return proxies (ERPs) and proposes a new framework for estimating them.
- 29 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Government Incentives and Financial Intermediaries: The Case of Chinese Sell-Side Analysts
This study is the first to examine analysts’ incentives vis-à-vis the government in a context where government has the ability and motives to influence capital market institutions. The paper highlights the role of government incentives in analysts’ behavior and output.
- 26 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
The Impact of CEOs in the Public Sector: Evidence from the English NHS
To what extent do CEOs impact their organizations? This study finds little consistent evidence of any CEO effect on the large set of production metrics examined in hospitals averaging 4,500 employees in the English National Health Service. This result stands in stark contrast with earlier findings of a CEO effect in the private sector and smaller public sector organizations.
The Impact of Increasing Search Frictions on Online Shopping Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment
With even minor changes to the design of an online store, sellers may get more full priced sales from price-insensitive shoppers. As shoppers spend more time on the website given higher search frictions, they may also be considering a larger set of products.