- 10 Feb 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Investing in Improvement: Strategy and Resource Allocation in Public School Districts
The operating environments of public school districts are largely void of the market forces that reward a company's success with more capital and exert pressure on it to eventually abandon unproductive activities. Stacey Childress describes the strategic resource decisions in 3 of the 20 public school districts that she and colleagues have studied through the Public Education Leadership Project at Harvard. The stories in San Francisco, New York City, and Maryland's Montgomery County occurred largely before the districts faced dramatic decreases in revenues, though they show the superintendents facing budget concerns near the end of the narratives. Even so, the situations share common principles that superintendents and their leadership teams can use to make differentiated resource decisions—reducing spending in some areas and increasing it in others with a clear rationale for why these decisions will produce results for students. Key concepts include: Given the rarity of strategic approaches to resource allocation described in the examples, it is clear that district leaders need more guidance and tools to help them make better decisions and manage the consequences, particularly when they are under enormous fiscal pressure. Back your strategy with a resource plan—otherwise it is not a strategy. Don't get trapped by the dogma of decentralization. If leaders alienate influential stakeholders when budgets are flush, it will be even more difficult to preserve key strategic investments during financial crises. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 25 Jan 2010
- Research & Ideas
A Macroeconomic View of the Current Economy
Concerned or confused by the economic environment? Take some lessons from history and concepts from macroeconomics to get a better understanding of how the economy works. A Q&A with HBS professor David A. Moss, author of A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics: What Managers, Executives, and Students Need to Know. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 07 Jan 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
International Differences in the Size and Roles of Corporate Headquarters: An Empirical Examination
Are small headquarters more nimble and efficient than large ones? Not necessarily, according to HBS adjunct professor David Collis and coauthors David Young and Michael Goold. Even within a single industry in one country, the variance can be enormous: In Germany in the late 1990s, for instance, Hoechst, the chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturer, had only 180 people in the headquarters function at the same time that Bayer had several thousand. This paper seeks to fill gaps in the research by using a unique database of over 600 companies in seven countries to determine whether systematic differences in the size and roles of corporate headquarters between countries actually exist, and if so, how they differ. In particular, the authors examine whether there is a systematic difference between market- and bank-centered economies, and between developed and developing countries. Key concepts include: Contrary to popular expectations, corporate headquarters in the United States are about twice the size of European counterparts yet appear to be more effective. It is not universally valuable to have small corporate headquarters. While companies with small headquarters can be successful, it is clear that larger headquarters can also be correlated with high performance and executive satisfaction with their role and cost- effectiveness. Japanese headquarters are substantially larger than elsewhere—a factor of nearly four times Europe. However, those headquarters are becoming smaller because of dissatisfaction with their performance. The developing country model of headquarters appears to fit none of the developed country models. There is no "market-centered" and "bank-centered" model of corporate headquarters, suggesting that at the level of key corporate decisions, other phenomenon have important independent influences. The size and role of corporate headquarters vary widely both between countries and within countries. There is more variation within each country than there is between countries. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 16 Dec 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
The End of Chimerica
Economic historians Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick of Freie Universität Berlin consider the problem of global imbalances and try to set events in a longer-term perspective. First published in 2009. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 09 Nov 2009
- Research & Ideas
Come Fly with Me: A History of Airline Leadership
A new book looks at the history of the U.S. aviation industry through the eyes of its entrepreneurs, managers, and leaders—men like Pan Am's Juan Trippe and Southwest Airlines' Herb Kelleher—each emerging at different stages of the industry's evolution from start-up to rebirth. Who comes next? An interview with coauthor Anthony J. Mayo. Key concepts include: While disruptive forces can change an industry, so too can leaders themselves by the manner in which they run their enterprises. Different archetypes of leaders emerged as the U.S. airline industry evolved from start-up phase through deregulation and the shock of September 11, 2001. Airlines seem ripe for a new form of leadership to reenergize the industry. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 05 Nov 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries
At the end of 2007, the U.S. economy entered a recession that, by the first quarter of 2009, had reduced U.S. GDP by 2.2 percent. The Mexican economy was showing no sign of distress until the U.S. recession began. Despite that, Mexican GDP declined by 7.8 percent during the same period. This and similar episodes from other developing countries motivate several questions: Why do shocks to developed economies affect developing countries to such an extent? Does the response of developing economies to shocks that originate in their developed neighbors account for the larger volatility of developing economies? More broadly, what ingredients do macroeconomic models need to incorporate in order to account for the unique features of economic fluctuations in developing economies? To investigate these questions, the researchers developed a two-country asymmetric model to study the business cycle in developing countries. The mechanisms introduced in the model should provide an accurate account of business cycles in other developing countries. Key concepts include: First, U.S. shocks have a larger effect on GDP in Mexico than in the United States. This result is driven by the larger amplitude of fluctuations in Mexican productivity and by the subsequent effects on investment. This finding has important implications for the sources of Mexican volatility. Second, the slow diffusion of technologies to Mexico results in U.S. shocks having more persistent effects on Mexico than in the United States. This result explains the observed lead of U.S. GDP over the medium-term component of Mexican output and the relative price of capital. Third, consumption is no less volatile than output in Mexico. The researchers' model accounts for this stylized fact because a Mexican recession slows down the diffusion of technologies to Mexico, generating a gradual increase in the price of installed capital. As a result, Mexican interest rates increase despite the lower marginal product of capital, and consumption drops precipitously. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 02 Nov 2009
- Research & Ideas
Shareholders Need a Say on Pay
"Say on pay" legislation now under debate Washington D.C. can be a useful tool for shareholders to strengthen the link between CEO pay and performance when it comes to golden parachutes, says Harvard Business School professor Fabrizio Ferri. Here's a look at how the collective involvement of multiple stakeholders could shape the future of executive compensation. Key concepts include: "Say on pay" means shareholders hold an annual advisory vote on executive pay based on a report prepared by the firm's board of directors. Say on pay might create more communication and awareness between shareholders and boards because it forces both entities to grapple with an extremely complex issue. Ferri advocates tailoring executive pay to a company's individual circumstances. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 27 Oct 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Stock Price Fragility
Does the composition of ownership of a financial asset influence future returns and risk? Previous economic research has documented significant price effects of investor demand in numerous settings, including retail demand for options, investor demand for bonds, and mutual funds' flow-driven demand for stocks. This paper provides a methodology to identify assets that are vulnerable to such investor demand shocks. The central idea is that assets are risky if the current owners of the asset face correlated liquidity shocks—i.e., they buy and sell at the same time. We call assets with a high concentration of owners who trade in the same direction "fragile." A related concept is "co-fragility." Two assets are "co-fragile" if their owners have correlated trading needs, even if the holdings of these owners do not directly overlap. The authors build measures of fragility for U.S. stocks between 1990 and 2007. Consistent with their predictions, more fragile stocks are more volatile, and two co-fragile stocks exhibit high correlations among their stock returns. Key concepts include: The link between ownership structure and non-fundamental risk. The link between common ownership structure and commonality in returns. Relating the liquidity needs of an asset's owners to the risks of the asset. The concept of fragility expresses the three reasons why a stock may be volatile: ownership concentration, volatility of liquidity needs, and correlation of liquidity needs across owners. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 01 Oct 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect
During periods of rising house prices, falling interest rates, and increasingly competitive and efficient refinancing markets, cash-out refinancing is like a ratchet, incrementally increasing homeowner debt as real-estate values appreciate without the ability to symmetrically decrease debt by increments as real-estate values decline. This paper suggests that systemic risk in the housing and mortgage markets can arise quite naturally from the confluence of these three apparently salutary economic trends. Using a numerical simulation of the U.S. mortgage market, the researchers show that the ratchet effect is capable of generating the magnitude of losses suffered by mortgage lenders during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. These observations have important implications for risk management practices and regulatory reform. Key concepts include: Consider the hypothetical scenario in which all homeowners decide to refinance and extract cash from any accumulated house equity so that their loan-to-value ratio is kept the same as the one for a new purchaser of that house. Suppose that the refinancing market is so competitive, i.e., refinancing costs are so low and capital is so plentiful, that homeowners can implement this refinancing each month. In this extreme case, during periods of rising home prices and falling interest rates, cash-out refinancing has the same risk effect "as if" all houses had been purchased and their mortgages originated at the peak of the housing market, thereby creating a large systemic risk exposure. Then, when home prices fall, the refinancing ratchet "locks,'' causing a systemic event with widespread correlated defaults and large losses for mortgage lenders. While excessive risk-taking, overly aggressive lending practices, pro-cyclical regulations, and political pressures surely contributed to the recent problems in the U.S. housing market, the simulations show that even if all homeowners, lenders, investors, insurers, rating agencies, regulators, and policymakers behaved rationally, ethically, and with the purest of motives, financial crises can still occur. The fact that the refinancing ratchet effect arises only when three market conditions are simultaneously satisfied demonstrates that the current financial crisis is subtle, and may not be attributable to a single cause. There may be no easy legislative or regulatory solutions: Lower interest rates, higher home prices, and easier access to mortgage loans have appeared separately in various political platforms and government policy objectives over the years. Their role in fostering economic growth makes it virtually impossible to address the refinancing ratchet effect within the current regulatory framework. We need an independent organization devoted solely to the study, measurement, and public notification of systemic risk, not unlike the role that the National Transportation Safety Board plays with respect to airplane crashes, train wrecks, and highway accidents. The subtle and multifaceted nature of the refinancing ratchet effect is just one example of the much broader challenge of defining, measuring, and managing systemic risk in the financial system. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 30 Sep 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Breakthrough Inventions and Migrating Clusters of Innovation
In just a short period of time the spatial location of invention can shift substantially. The San Francisco Bay Area grew from 5 percent of U.S. domestic patents in 1975-1984 to over 12 percent in 1995-2004, for example, while the share for New York City declined from 12 percent to 7 percent. Smaller cities like Austin, Texas, and Boise, Idaho, seem to have become clusters of innovation overnight. Despite the prevalence of these movements, we know very little about what drives spatial adjustments in U.S. invention, the speed at which these reallocations occur, and their economic consequences. In this paper, HBS professor William R. Kerr investigates whether breakthrough inventions draw subsequent research efforts for a technology to a local area. Evidence strongly supports the conclusion that centers of breakthrough innovations experience subsequent growth in innovation relative to their peer locations. Key concepts include: Breakthrough inventions spur higher subsequent growth in innovation within a local area and technology compared to peer locations that, for example, have the same overall numbers of patents and similar technologies at the time when the breakthrough occurred. The underlying mobility of the workforce is quite important for the speed at which spatial adjustments occur. Immigrants, and particularly new immigration to the United States, can facilitate faster spatial reallocation. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 14 Sep 2009
- Research & Ideas
Understanding Users of Social Networks
Many business leaders are mystified about how to reach potential customers on social networks such as Facebook. Professor Mikolaj Jan Piskorski provides a fresh look into the interpersonal dynamics of these sites and offers guidance for approaching these tantalizing markets. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 11 Sep 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Banking Deregulations, Financing Constraints and Firm Entry Size
How do financing constraints on new start-ups affect the initial size of these new firms? Since bank debt comprises the majority of U.S. firm borrowings, new ventures are especially sensitive to local bank conditions due to their limited options for external finance. Liberalization in the banking sector can thus have important effects on entrepreneurship in product markets. As HBS professors William Kerr and Ramana Nanda explain, the 1970s through the mid-1990s was a period of significant liberalization in the ability of banks to establish branches and to expand across state borders, either through new branches or through acquisitions. Using a database of annual employment data for every U.S. establishment from 1976 onward, Kerr and Nanda examine how U.S. branch banking deregulations impacted the entry size of new start-ups in the non-financial sector. This paper is closely related to their prior work examining how the deregulations impacted the rates of startup entry and exit in the non-financial sector. Key concepts include: The average entry size for start-ups did not change following the bank deregulations. However, this result masks the differences in entry size among startups that failed within three years of entry and those that survived for four years or more. Start-ups that survived for four years or longer entered at 2% larger sizes after the deregulations compared to earlier periods. Entrants that failed within three years did not enter at larger firm sizes. It is a challenge to measure accurately changes in the initial size of new firms even using micro-data such as that from the U.S. Census Bureau. Carefully characterizing effects of financing constraints on the initial size of new firms theoretically and empirically is an important research topic for entrepreneurial finance. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 09 Sep 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Perspectives from the Boardroom--2009
Chief executives and regulators have been blamed for the current economic crisis, but in some ways what is surprising is that boards have generally escaped notice. Clearly the experience of corporate boards in the downturn has not been explored. To understand what transpired in the boardrooms of complex companies, and to offer a prescription to improve board effectiveness, eight senior faculty members of the HBS Corporate Governance Initiative talked with 45 prominent directors about what has happened to their companies and why. These directors, who serve on the boards of financial institutions and other complex companies, were asked two broad questions: How well did their boards function before the recession? And, what do they believe should be improved as they look to the future? This white paper [PDF] first explains how the interviewees characterize the strengths of their boards, then examines in depth six areas in which they identified shortcomings or needs for improvement: 1) clarifying the board's role; 2) acquiring better information and deeper knowledge of the company; 3) maintaining a sound relationship with management; 4) providing oversight of company strategy; 5) assuring management development and succession; 6) improving risk management. Finally, the paper discusses two issues that appeared not to trouble the interviewees but that the public feels are important: executive compensation and the relationship between the board and shareholders. This paper was written by Jay Lorsch with the assistance of Joseph Bower, Clayton Rose, and Suraj Srinivasan. The interviews were conducted by Joseph Bower, Srikant Datar, Raymond Gilmartin, Stephen Kaufman, Rakesh Khurana, Jay Lorsch, and Clayton Rose. Key concepts include: Regulations and laws offer little guidance about what specifically boards should do, and, given this lack of specificity, most boards have gradually developed an implicit understanding of what their job should be. Directors expressed strong consensus that the key to improving boards' performance is not government action but action on the part of each board. To improve board effectiveness, each board should achieve clarity about its role in relation to that of management: the extent and nature of the board's involvement in strategy, management succession, risk oversight, and compliance. If, as interviewees insisted, each board's effectiveness is directly attributable to its activities, it follows that boards have a responsibility to define their own roles with clarity, and to decide how to perform those roles in light of the nature of the firm, its industry, and its particular challenges. If boards are to decide on their goals and activities, they must expect to invest extended time in hard-headed discussions of both, leading to concrete and actionable conclusions. Boards need to maintain a delicate balance in their relationship with management. They must be challenging and critical on the one hand and supportive on the other. They have to sustain an open and candid flow of communication in both directions. And they must seek sources of understanding their company beyond just management without offending management. Issues of executive compensation and the relationship between boards and shareholders cannot be ignored, if only because they affect public perceptions of business and therefore its social legitimacy. Paper Information Full Working Paper Text Working Paper Publication Date: September 2009 Faculty Unit: Organizational Behavior Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 02 Sep 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas and Bid-Ask Spreads
What is the role of fair values in the current economic crisis? The interplay between information risk—that is, uncertainty regarding valuation parameters for an underlying asset—and the reporting of financial instruments at fair value has been a subject of high-level policy debate. Finance theory suggests that information risk is reflected in firms' equity betas and the information asymmetry component of bid-ask spreads. HBS professor Edward Riedl and doctoral candidate George Serafeim test predictions for a sample of large U.S. banks, exploiting recent mandatory disclosures of financial instruments designated as fair value level 1, 2, and 3, which indicate progressively more illiquid and opaque financial instruments. Overall, banks with higher exposures to level 3 financial assets have both higher equity betas and higher bid-ask spreads. Both results are consistent with higher levels of information risk, and thus cost of capital, for these firms. Key concepts include: Banks with higher exposure to level 3 (or more illiquid) financial assets reflect higher information risk, revealed both in higher equity betas and higher bid-ask spreads. This is suggestive that current disclosures surrounding level 3 financial instruments are insufficient to mitigate investor perceptions of greater information risk for highly opaque financial assets. The regulatory implications may include enhancements to the disclosures (particularly for level 3 financial instruments), as well as increased movement towards risk-weighted regulatory capital. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 26 Aug 2009
- Op-Ed
Where Cash for Clunkers Ran Off the Road
Marketing professor John Quelch says the federal government's "Cash for Clunkers" program was poorly run and failed to meet its main objectives, proving again the government has no business trying to shape consumer behavior. Join the discussion. Key concepts include: Cash for Clunkers was an unjustifiable drain on American taxpayers. The promotion stole largely from future sales with taxpayers subsidizing over half a million new car sales that would have occurred anyway. The federal government has no experience in such initiatives and proved itself incapable of forecasting demand associated with different incentive levels. Administration expenses might well reach 10 percent of total program costs. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 07 Aug 2009
- What Do You Think?
Why Can’t Americans Get Health Care Right?
Change is desperately needed, agreed readers of Professor Jim Heskett's online forum. But how to make that change remains in doubt. What can Americans learn from solutions implemented by other countries? (Forum now closed; next forum begins September 4.) Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 06 Aug 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Buy Local? The Geography of Successful and Unsuccessful Venture Capital Expansion
From Silicon Valley to Herzliya, Israel, venture capital firms are concentrated in very few locations. More than half of the 1,000 venture capital offices listed in Pratt's Guide to Private Equity and Venture Capital Sources are located in just three metropolitan areas: San Francisco, Boston, and New York. More than 49 percent of the U.S.-based companies financed by venture capital firms are located in these three cities. This paper examines the location decisions of venture capital firms and the impact that venture capital firm geography has on investments and outcomes. Findings are informative both to researchers in economic geography and to policymakers who seek to attract venture capital. Key concepts include: The success rate of venture capital investments in a region is an important determinant of venture capital firms' decisions to open new branches. While venture capital firms in San Francisco, Boston, and New York City outperform, their outperformance is not driven by local investments. While their performance in investments everywhere is better than that of their peers based in different cities, the outperformance is particularly striking outside the cities where they have offices. Interestingly, some of the performance disparity between local and nonlocal investments disappears when a venture firm does more than one investment in a region, suggesting that as the marginal monitoring cost falls, venture capital firms may reduce their expected success rate for investment in a distant geography. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 28 Jul 2009
- Research Event
Business Summit: Real Estate
Experts discuss the global real estate crisis, the future of securitization, and predictions for the future of the U.S. real estate market. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
- 23 Jul 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Informed and Interconnected: A Manifesto for Smarter Cities
To make our cities and communities smarter, we must become a little smarter ourselves, seeking information and an agenda to forge connections enabling collaboration, according to HBS professor Rosabeth Moss Kanter and IBM's Stanley S. Litow. Their vision is that someday soon, leaders will combine technological capabilities and social innovation to help produce a smarter world. That world will be seen on the ground in smarter cities composed of smarter communities that support the well-being of all citizens. This paper outlines eight challenges facing cities and the communities they encompass, based on experience in the United States. Kanter and Litow provide examples of practices and programs led by both government and nonprofit organizations, many technology-enabled, that point the way to solutions, and they conclude with a call for leaders to embrace an agenda for change. Key concepts include: The need for a new approach to U.S. communities is an urgent imperative because of the biggest global economic crisis since the Great Depression. Significant barriers to solving urban problems include geographic sprawl, residential mobility, the location of jobs, the lack of overarching strategic impact goals, weakened civic leadership, and social isolation. By examining each barrier in turn (and the ways they reinforce each other), it is possible to see the opportunities for significant transformation if communities could become "smarter," with technology helping spread information and facilitate interconnections. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.
Tragedy at Toyota: How Not to Lead in Crisis
"Toyota can only regain its footing by transforming itself from top to bottom to deliver the highest quality automobiles," says HBS professor Bill George of the beleaguered automobile company that in recent months has recalled 8 million vehicles. He offers seven recommendations for restoring consumer confidence in the safety and quality behind the storied brand. Key concepts include: Toyota Motor Corporation's problem is first and foremost a leadership crisis. It needs a credible leader with a strong, cohesive plan. Competitors Ford and GM are working to regain the market share they have lost to Toyota. Rather than blame floor mats and panicky drivers, as Toyota did when complaints first arose, it should have acknowledged that its vaunted quality system failed. Toyota should seize the opportunity to make radical changes to renew the company and restore consumers' trust. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.