Decision Making
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- 01 Nov 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning
Passengers arriving at international hubs often endure delays, especially at immigration and security. This study of London’s Heathrow Airport develops a system to provide real-time information about transfer passengers’ journeys through the airport to better serve passengers, airlines, and their employees. It shows how advanced machine learning could be accessible to managers.
- 17 Oct 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing
Many important business decisions rely on a manager’s forecast of a product or service’s life cycle. One of the most widely used forecasting techniques is exponential smoothing models. This paper introduces a model suitable for large-scale forecasting environments where key operational decisions depend on quantile forecasts.
- 19 Sep 2018
- Sharpening Your Skills
Say Again? Uncommon Advice for Common Business Problems
Sometimes the right answer is far from obvious. Learn why an introvert may be the best choice to lead your team, taking a pay cut might make you a better manager, and why you should not trust your gut when the pressure is on. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 30 Jul 2018
- Research & Ideas
Why Ethical People Become Unethical Negotiators
You may think you are an ethical person, but self-interest can cloud your judgment when you sit down at the bargaining table, says Max Bazerman. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 17 May 2018
- Sharpening Your Skills
You Probably Have a Bias for Making Bad Decisions. Here's Why.
Cognitive biases cloud our decision making like a San Francisco fog in the brain. Here is recent research on psychological factors that fool us into hiring bad employees, favoring one gender or race over another, or giving more weight to the last information we've received. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 16 Apr 2018
- Research & Ideas
Can Consumers Be Saved From Their Misguided Decisions?
Even with a world of information at our fingertips, consumers routinely make bad decisions on everything from investments to health coverage. Can science help? Research by Joshua Schwartzstein and Benjamin Handel. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 05 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change
This study finds that data from digital platforms (in this case, Yelp) can help forecast which neighborhoods are gentrifying and provide new ways to measure business landscape changes that accompany demographic changes.
- 09 Feb 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Developing Novel Drugs
This paper contributes to our understanding of how financing constraints affect the direction of innovation in drug development. The authors develop a new measure of drug novelty based on molecular characteristics, and explore the tradeoffs involved in decisions to develop more novel therapies. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 08 Jan 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation
The study develops a simple model and provides new data to examine the relationship between vertical integration and delegation of decision-making, two critical aspects of a firm organizational design that are typically studied in isolation. The results show that delegation and vertical integration are positively correlated.
- 25 Oct 2017
- Research & Ideas
Will Machine Learning Make You a Better Manager?
Big data...artificial intelligence...Internet of Things. These technologies have taken their shares of the headlines the past few years, but now machine learning is the buzz. Mike Teodorescu explains how it is changing the lives of consumers and businesses. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 23 Sep 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
Nowcasting the Local Economy: Using Yelp Data to Measure Economic Activity at Scale
Data from online platforms ranging from Yelp to Zillow offer the potential for improved measurement of the local economy. This paper finds that Yelp data can predict business growth, as measured by the Census Bureau, before official statistics are released. Predictive power increases with population density, income, and education level.
- 12 Sep 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
The Better is the Enemy of the Good
Previous research has shown that individuals’ self-serving responses to information may arise when payoff information is subjective or uncertain. This study, in the context of charitable giving, shows that individuals’ ability to respond to payoff information in a self-serving way even includes situations when information is complete and certain.
- 11 Sep 2017
- Research & Ideas
Why Employers Favor Men
Why are women discriminated against in hiring decisions? Research by Katherine Coffman, Christine Exley, and Muriel Niederle finds the answer is more subtle than expected. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 24 Jul 2017
- Research & Ideas
People Have an Irrational Need to Complete 'Sets' of Things
People are irrationally motivated to complete arbitrary sets of tasks, donations, or purchases—and organizations can take advantage of that, according to new research by Kate Barasz, Leslie John, Elizabeth Keenan, and Michael Norton. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 12 Jul 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
Task Selection and Workload: A Focus on Completing Easy Tasks Hurts Long-Term Performance
Employees facing increased workloads usually tackle easier tasks first. This study tests the performance implications of such prioritization. Findings show that it happens because people feel positive emotions after task completion, yet it could hurt long-term performance. Workloads could be structured to help employee development as well as organizational performance.
- 05 Jul 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
Designing an Agile Software Portfolio Architecture: The Impact of Coupling on Performance
This study deepens our understanding of how firms can better design software portfolio architectures to improve their agility. The authors examined data from over 1,000 different software applications and 3,000 dependencies between them. They found that indirect measures of coupling and dependency have more power in predicting IT agility than direct measures.
- 14 Jun 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates
This paper highlights the motivations and consequences of citizens voting for lower-ranked candidates in elections held under plurality rule. Findings show that a large fraction of voters are what the authors call expressive. Expressive voters vote for their favorite candidate even if it causes the defeat of their second-best choice.
- 14 Jun 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp
TCC (Top Trading Cycles) and DA (deferred acceptance) are the two main algorithms for priority-based resource allocation. In 2012, the New Orleans school system tried to use TCC for school assignments, but dropped it after one year. The authors of this paper compared data from New Orleans and Boston in order to review designs and algorithms for better school assignment systems.
- 15 May 2017
- Sharpening Your Skills
The Promises and Limitations of Big Data
Recent stories chart the rise of big data, its impact on business, and how it affects our lives every day. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
'Always On' Isn't Always Best for Team Decision-Making
Is it possible for teams to communicate too frequently? Research by Ethan Bernstein and colleagues suggests that groups that meet less often may be better at problem-solving. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.