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New research on decision making from Harvard Business School faculty on issues including policymaking, approaches to common work problems, and predicting behavior.
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Using Models to Persuade

by Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam

“Model persuasion” happens when would-be persuaders offer receivers a streamlined way of understanding data they already know, especially when the data is open to interpretation. Using examples from finance, politics, and law, the authors find that truthtellers do not eliminate the impact of misleading persuasion because wrong models may better fit the past than correct models.

Can These Business Students Motivate Londoners to Do the Right Thing?

by Dina Gerdeman

In the Harvard Business School course Behavioral Insights, students work in the UK with psychology experts to understand what motivates consumers and workers. What they learn can help businesses of all types, says Michael Luca. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin

Investors’ biases and market outcomes affect each other in a two-way feedback loop. This study develops a model of a credit market feedback loop, finding that when investors become more bullish this can predict positive returns in the short run, even if expected returns become more negative at longer horizons.

Memory and Representativeness

by Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter, and Andrei Shleifer

We explore the foundations of individuals’ probabilistic judgments, looking to better understand the sources of systematic errors. We conduct a laboratory experiment where participants view abstract images and are then asked to recall what they saw. We find evidence that interference in episodic memory contributes to biased probabilistic judgments.

Consumer Inertia and Market Power

by Alexander MacKay and Marc Remer

Consumers are often more likely to buy a product if they have purchased it previously. This paper provides a means to estimate the magnitude of this phenomenon (i.e., consumer inertia) and shows how it affects the prices of firms in competitive settings. Perhaps surprisingly, greater consumer inertia can result in smaller price increases after a merger.

How To Ask Better Questions

by Kristen Senz

To make the best decisions, managers must ask the right questions. This collection of past studies by Harvard Business School researchers will help you gather the critical information needed to prepare for action. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

The Revision Bias

by Ximena Garcia-Rada, Leslie John, Ed O’Brien, and Michael I. Norton

Companies often release revised editions of books, director’s cuts of movies, and technological updates, on the assumption that revising products and services leads to better outcomes. Nine studies, however, document the revision bias: the tendency to prefer things that were revised, regardless of whether the revised versions are objectively better than their predecessors.

The Hidden Cost of a Product Recall

by Danielle Kost

Product failures create managerial challenges for companies but market opportunities for competitors, says Ariel Dora Stern. The stakes have only grown higher. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

by Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Michael Wahlen

Selecting early-stage ideas in creative industries is challenging because consumer taste is hard to predict and the quantity to sift through is large. Using The Black List that ranks scripts annually based on nominations from film executives, this study shows that aggregating expert opinions helps reduce quality uncertainty and can influence high-budget production.

Gender Stereotypes in Deliberation and Team Decisions

by Katherine B. Coffman, Clio Bryant Flikkema, and Olga Shurchkov

Professional success requires the ability to contribute ideas, and receive credit for them. This paper explores gender differences in how men and women communicate and reward each other in team decision-making problems. We find that women are recognized less often for their contributions in male-typed domains.

Stereotypes and Belief Updating

by Katherine B. Coffman, Manuela Collis, and Leena Kulkarni

Increasing evidence demonstrates that stereotyped beliefs drive key economic decisions. This paper shows the significant role of self-stereotyping in predicting beliefs about one’s own ability. Stereotypes do not just affect beliefs about ability when information is scarce. In fact, stereotypes color the way information is incorporated into beliefs, perpetuating initial biases.

The Better Way to Forecast the Future

by Roberta Holland

We can forecast hurricane paths with great certainty, yet many businesses can't predict a supply chain snafu just around the corner. Yael Grushka-Cockayne says crowdsourcing can help. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Demand Estimation in Models of Imperfect Competition

by Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller

The study shows how knowledge about firm behavior can be modeled to better predict demand. Firms tend to raise prices in response to higher demand, so observed relationships between price and quantity can be quite misleading. The authors provide an adjustment that can be used when price experiments or instrumental variables are not available.

'Always On' Isn't Always Best for Team Decision-Making

by Roberta Holland

Is it possible for teams to communicate too frequently? Research by Ethan Bernstein and colleagues suggests that groups that meet less often may be better at problem-solving. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning

by Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Bert De Reyck

Passengers arriving at international hubs often endure delays, especially at immigration and security. This study of London’s Heathrow Airport develops a system to provide real-time information about transfer passengers’ journeys through the airport to better serve passengers, airlines, and their employees. It shows how advanced machine learning could be accessible to managers.

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing

by Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

Many important business decisions rely on a manager’s forecast of a product or service’s life cycle. One of the most widely used forecasting techniques is exponential smoothing models. This paper introduces a model suitable for large-scale forecasting environments where key operational decisions depend on quantile forecasts.

Say Again? Uncommon Advice for Common Business Problems

by Sean Silverthorne

Sometimes the right answer is far from obvious. Learn why an introvert may be the best choice to lead your team, taking a pay cut might make you a better manager, and why you should not trust your gut when the pressure is on. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Why Ethical People Become Unethical Negotiators

by Dina Gerdeman

You may think you are an ethical person, but self-interest can cloud your judgment when you sit down at the bargaining table, says Max Bazerman. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Cut Salaries or Cut People? The Best Way to Survive a Downturn

by Rachel Layne

When times are tight, companies usually respond with employee layoffs. But what if they held on to workers and cut their salaries instead? New research by Christopher Stanton and colleagues has the answer. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

You Probably Have a Bias for Making Bad Decisions. Here's Why.

by Sean Silverthorne

Cognitive biases cloud our decision making like a San Francisco fog in the brain. Here is recent research on psychological factors that fool us into hiring bad employees, favoring one gender or race over another, or giving more weight to the last information we've received. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.