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Decision MakingRemove Decision Making →

New research on decision making from Harvard Business School faculty on issues including policymaking, approaches to common work problems, and predicting behavior.
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Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?

by Benjamin Enke, Uri Gneezy, Brian Hall, David Martin, Vadim Nelidov, Theo Offerman, and Jeroen van de Ven

This study of field and lab data strongly suggests that people do not necessarily make better decisions when the stakes are very high. Results highlight the potential economic consequences of cognitive biases.

How Do CEOs Make Strategy?

by Mu-Jeung Yang, Michael Christensen, Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun, and Jan Rivkin

A study of 262 Harvard Business School-educated CEOs traces differences in strategic decision-making across managers. CEOs leading larger, faster-growing firms tend to make highly structured strategic decisions and use more analytical deliberation. Management education has long-lasting effects on decision-making.

'Repayment-by-Purchase' Helps Consumers to Reduce Credit Card Debt

by Grant E. Donnelly, Cait Lamberton, Stephen Bush, Zoe Chance, and Michael I. Norton

Many consumers fail to pay off credit card debt each month and suffer financial consequences. Repayment-by-purchase, allocating payment toward specific purchases on a credit card bill, helps consumers gain a sense of progress and control over credit card debt.

Can Entrepreneurs Make Mobile Voting Easy and Secure?

Making voting more accessible through technology could have tremendous payoffs for democracy—but also pose critical downsides if the product fails. Mitch Weiss, who teaches a course on public entrepreneurship, discusses his case study on Voatz and their plan to turn mobile phones into voting booths. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Financial Meltdowns Are More Predictable Than We Thought

by Danielle Kost

Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson discuss new research that shows economic crises follow predictable patterns. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

What the Stockdale Paradox Tells Us About Crisis Leadership

by Boris Groysberg and Robin Abrahams

The Stockdale Paradox and survival psychology contain wisdom for how leaders can manage the coronavirus crisis, according to Boris Groysberg and Robin Abrahams. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Is the 'Experimentation Organization' Becoming the Competitive Gold Standard?

by James Heskett

SUMMING UP: Digital experimentation is gaining momentum as an everyday habit in many organizations, especially those in high tech, say James Heskett's readers. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic

by Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton

Findings from a nationwide survey underscore the importance of demand projections and interdependencies among businesses for owners’ reopening decisions. Businesses expect the demand for their services will be greatly depressed for many months to come.

It’s Time to Reset Decision-Making in Your Organization

by Boris Groysberg and Sarah Abbott

Clear decision-making in a crisis depends on sound methodology and gathering information from a variety of sources. Advice from Boris Groysberg and Sarah Abbott. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business

by Frank V. Cespedes

Businesses are starting to plan their re-entry into the market, but how do they know what that market will look like? Frank V. Cespedes warns against putting too much trust in forecasters. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

The Bulletproof Glass Effect: When Privacy Notices Backfire

by Aaron R. Brough, David A. Norton, and Leslie John

Consumers regularly encounter privacy notices explaining if and how their personal information will be collected, stored, used, and shared. Evidence in this study demonstrates that privacy notices, though designed to promote a sense of confidence that personal data will not be misused, can undermine consumer trust and decrease purchase intent.

How to Turn Down the Boil on Group Conflict

by Michael Blanding

Intergroup conflict can grind office productivity to a halt. Jeffrey Lees discusses how understanding psychological stereotypes can help divided parties compromise. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

When to Apply?

by Katherine Coffman, Manuela Collis, and Leena Kulkarni

Using a series of experiments, the authors studied gender differences in how job-seekers perceive their own qualifications for different opportunities and how this affects their decision to apply. Results suggest that soft touch employer interventions can improve the diversity of applicant pools even if candidate beliefs about their own ability are unchanged.

Creating the Experimentation Organization

by Michael Blanding

New tools allow companies to innovate on an unprecedented scale, in every aspect of business. But the organization must also change. Stefan Thomke previews his forthcoming book, Experimentation Works. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Don't Turn Your Marketing Function Over to AI Just Yet

by Kristen Senz

Lacking human insight, artificial intelligence will be limited when it comes to helping marketers open the black box of market prediction, says Tomomichi Amano. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Use Artificial Intelligence to Set Sales Targets That Motivate

by Michael Blanding

Setting sales targets has always been an inexact science, with serious consequences if done poorly. Using AI-based advanced analytics might be the answer, argues Doug Chung. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.

Persuasion by Populist Propaganda: Evidence from the 2015 Argentine Ballotage

by Rafael Di Tella, Sebastian Galiani, and Ernesto Schargrodsky

This paper studies data generated prior to the 2015 Argentine presidential ballotage, when a government propaganda campaign was used to attack the opposition candidate and influence voter preferences. Results show the propaganda was persuasive.

Vote Choice Formation and the Minimal Effects of TV Debates: Evidence from 61 Elections in 9 OECD Countries

by Caroline Le Pennec-Caldichoury and Vincent Pons

This study of 61 elections around the world finds that vote choices aggregate a lot of information obtained during the electoral season, but the contribution of TV debates to this process is negligible.

Using Models to Persuade

by Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam

“Model persuasion” happens when would-be persuaders offer receivers a streamlined way of understanding data they already know, especially when the data is open to interpretation. Using examples from finance, politics, and law, the authors find that truthtellers do not eliminate the impact of misleading persuasion because wrong models may better fit the past than correct models.

Can These Business Students Motivate Londoners to Do the Right Thing?

by Dina Gerdeman

In the Harvard Business School course Behavioral Insights, students work in the UK with psychology experts to understand what motivates consumers and workers. What they learn can help businesses of all types, says Michael Luca. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.