Economics
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- 07 Jul 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Predictable Financial Crises
One central issue in the study of macroeconomic stability is financial crisis predictability. This paper estimates the probability of financial crises as a function of past credit and asset price growth.
- 02 Jul 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets
Examining the impact that changes in expenditure patterns are having on the measurement of consumer price indices (CPI) inflation in 17 countries, this study finds that the cost of living for the average consumer is higher than estimated by the official CPI. This implies that real consumption is falling more quickly over time.
- 18 Jun 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
The Rise of the Investor State: State Capital in the Chinese Economy
Researchers document and explain the rise of a novel form of intervention on the part of the Chinese state: the expansion of state capital beyond ownership of state firms.
- 07 Jun 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Financial Distancing: How Venture Capital Follows the Economy Down and Curtails Innovation
Common wisdom holds that VC investment and VC-backed startups are relatively insulated from downturns. This study shows that the relative quantity and quality of innovation declines more for VC-backed firms than for other types of firms during downturns.
- 05 May 2020
- COVID-19
China Tariffs and Coronavirus a Double Hit to American Retailers
American retailers have yet to pass along higher prices caused by Chinese tariffs, but shrinking product demand caused by the coronavirus could change that, warns Alberto Cavallo. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 23 Apr 2020
- COVID-19
This Crisis Loan Program Preserved Jobs—and Made Money
Following the 2008 financial crisis, France offered a business loan program that helped firms, employees, and even the government, says Boris Vallee. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 16 Apr 2020
- COVID-19
Has COVID-19 Broken the Global Value Chain?
4Questions Companies and consumers depend on the global value chain to create and distribute products around the world. What happens when the chain breaks? Insights from Laura Alfaro and Ester Faia. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 14 Apr 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Contractual Restrictions and Debt Traps
Microfinance has failed to catalyze entrepreneurship in developing countries, despite abundant evidence of high return on investment opportunities. What can account for this? This study presents a theory in which firms that borrow from an informal lender may see their growth stalled and remain in the relationship indefinitely, even though they would have continued to grow in the absence of a lender.
- 17 Mar 2020
- Cold Call Podcast
Is There a Winner in Huawei’s Digital Cold War with the US?
Bill Kirby discusses his case study of China-based Huawei’s growth and ultimate confrontation with the United States government, and China's response to the coronavirus. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 17 Feb 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
The Impact of Technology and Trade on Migration: Evidence from the US
Labor mobility can re-equilibrate local labor markets after an economic shock. Both robot adoption and Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2015 caused large declines in manufacturing employment across US local labor markets (commuting zones, CZs). However, only robots were associated with a decline in CZ population, which resulted from reduced in-migration rather than by increased out-migration.
- 16 Dec 2019
- Research & Ideas
Taking on the Taboos That Keep Women Out of India's Workforce
Giving women in rural India more control over household finances reduces the social stigma of working, says research by Natalia Rigol. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 14 Nov 2019
- Book
Lifting the Lid on Turkey's Hidden Business History
The business history of modern Turkey has been largely hidden from view, but a new book edited by Geoffrey Jones and Asli M. Colpan pulls back the covers. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 13 Nov 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
The Gender Gap in Self-Promotion
Many organizations and job applications require individuals to assess their own ability and performance. When women communicate to potential employers, however, they systematically give less favorable assessments of their own past performance and potential future ability than equally performing men. The study rules out potential explanations for the gap and discusses implications.
- 12 Nov 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
Collecting and analyzing microdata on prices and the reaction of importers, retailers, and exporters to US trade policy since 2018, this study finds most of the tariffs’ incidence rests with the US firms.
- 12 Nov 2019
- Research & Ideas
Corporate Innovation Increasingly Benefits from Government Research
Nearly a third of US patents rely directly on government-funded research, says Dennis Yao. Is government too involved in supporting private sector innovation—or not enough? Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
- 14 Oct 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Undisclosed Debt Sustainability
Presenting a scenario in which non-Paris Club lending and borrowing is fully disclosed, this study illustrates that transparency has potential effects of decreased debt sustainability for investors such as China, and significant welfare gains for recipient countries. Effects are particularly strong if the debt is large.
- 30 Sep 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Comments on Macri's Macro by Federico Sturzenegger
Rafael Di Tella analyzes a paper by Federico Sturzenegger, the Governor of the Central Bank of Argentina under President Mauricio Macri, detailing the country’s efforts to stabilize the economy following 12 years of a populist administration.
- 02 Sep 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Legislators' Response to Changes in the Electorate: The Great Migration and Civil Rights
The second Great Migration (1940–1970) brought to the US North and West more than four million African Americans. We show that this unique episode of internal migration contributed to the development and eventual success of civil rights legislation.
- 02 Sep 2019
- What Do You Think?
Are Overlooked Forces Shielding the US from Severe Economic Downturns?
SUMMING UP: Many of Jame's Heskett's readers believe that one factor more than any other could kills expansion of the United States economy: actions by the Federal Reserve. Open for comment; Comment(s) posted.
How Should US Bank Regulators Respond to the COVID-19 Crisis?
Instead of the "watchful waiting" approach taken by US bank regulators to the pandemic crisis, they should use their prudential authorities to encourage banks to increase their equity capital. This is effectively a way of buying low-cost insurance against adverse scenarios that have become more likely.