International Finance →

Watching for the Next Economic Downturn? Follow Corporate Debt

Rising household debt alone isn't enough to predict looming economic crises. Research by Victoria Ivashina examines the role of corporate debt in fiscal crashes since 1940.

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

The steep inflation that plagued the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic took many economists by surprise. But research by Alberto Cavallo suggests that a different method of tracking prices—a real-time model—could predict future surges better.

Is It Time to Consider Lifting Tariffs on Chinese Imports?

Many of the tariffs levied by the Trump administration on Chinese goods remain in place. James Heskett weighs whether the US should prioritize renegotiating trade agreements with China, and what it would take to move on from the trade war. Open for comment; 0 Comments.

Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation

This study examines how reserve accumulation affects governments’ decisions to default. The analysis assumes that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own currency. Results suggest that the optimal level of international reserves is fairly large because their cost is mitigated by valuation-smoothing gains. The model matches some features of Brazil’s economic fluctuations.