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New research on macroeconomics from Harvard Business School faculty on issues including how the Chinese Communist Party used land supply as a key tool of macroeconomic expansion and contraction, why federal spending in states appears to cause local businesses to cut back rather than grow, and why the GDP is not an accurate measure of economic growth.
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Watching for the Next Economic Downturn? Follow Corporate Debt

by Rachel Layne

Rising household debt alone isn't enough to predict looming economic crises. Research by Victoria Ivashina examines the role of corporate debt in fiscal crashes since 1940.

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

by Rachel Layne

The steep inflation that plagued the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic took many economists by surprise. But research by Alberto Cavallo suggests that a different method of tracking prices—a real-time model—could predict future surges better.

The Better Way to Forecast the Future

by Roberta Holland

We can forecast hurricane paths with great certainty, yet many businesses can't predict a supply chain snafu just around the corner. Yael Grushka-Cockayne says crowdsourcing can help. Open for comment; 0 Comments.

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

by David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein, and Egon Zakrajsek

Using United States data from 1929 to 2013, Jeremy C. Stein and colleagues emphasize the role of credit-market sentiment as an important driver of the business cycle.

Land Institutions and Chinese Political Economy: Institutional Complementarities and Macroeconomic Management

by Meg Rithmire

This paper shows the ways in which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has used land as a policy tool. CCP leaders intentionally reorganized fiscal, financial, and land institutions to put land at the center of local government finances in the mid-1990s. Since the late 1990s, the CCP has used the land supply as a key tool of macroeconomic expansion and contraction. Local officials act as agents of the center: pursuing land development when pushed to so do by central authorities concerned about managing economic growth.

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

by Emil N. Siriwardane

Emil Siriwardane analyzes the probability for risk of large-scale financial disasters.

Stimulus Surprise: Companies Retrench When Government Spends

by Sean Silverthorne

Research from Harvard Business School suggests that federal spending in states appears to cause local businesses to cut back rather than grow. A conversation with Joshua Coval. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.

A Macroeconomic View of the Current Economy

by Sean Silverthorne

Concerned or confused by the economic environment? Take some lessons from history and concepts from macroeconomics to get a better understanding of how the economy works. A Q&A with HBS professor David A. Moss, author of A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics: What Managers, Executives, and Students Need to Know. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.

What Does Slower Economic Growth Really Mean?

by Jim Heskett

Respondents to this month's column by HBS professor Jim Heskett came close to general agreement on the proposition that economic growth is not measured properly by GDP, calling for new indicators. Jim sums up. (Online forum now closed. Next forum begins July 6.) Closed for comment; 0 Comments.

Restoring a Global Economy, 1950–1980

by Geoffrey Jones

In his recent book Multinationals and Global Capitalism, professor Geoffrey Jones dissects the influence of multinationals on the world economy. This excerpt recalls the rebuilding of the global economy following World War II. Closed for comment; 0 Comments.