Recently we've been witnessing a public debate about concerns ranging from what some perceive to be a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy to appropriate worldwide responses to such things as terrorism and twenty-first-century plagues. Based on an unscientific sample, is it my imagination or is it possible that a more muted but related conversation is taking place among executives of firms with global interests—one that centers around the impact that these phenomena may have on such things as the potential benefits and costs of doing business abroad?
Specifically, will questions increasingly be asked about whether strategies for foreign investments should be altered to reflect what some perceive to be a narrowing between the rewards and risks of such ventures?
Whether because of reduced market expectations or increased transactional costs resulting from deteriorating international relations, tighter regulation and security restrictions, the outbreak of tariff skirmishes, expected reductions in productivity gains, or simply a decline in trust among some North Atlantic trading partners, the discussion seems to be occurring with increasing frequency. Boiled down to its simplest level, the underlying question appears to be whether or not global business initiatives should be devalued.
On the one hand, one might argue that such discussions are an overreaction to current events, that nations have become so interdependent and multinational business organizations so vital to the world's economy that there is no turning back from generally freer trade policies, and that with a return to a more normal world order, global business initiatives will become even more valuable.
If, however, current geopolitical events are merely symptoms of a greater and longer struggle with forces seeking to disrupt the world order, will we begin to consider a concept that, until recently, has been unthinkable: that global initiatives in many cases should be devalued, discounted, or postponed in relation to more predictable business investments "closer to home?" What do you think?