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      Advertising and Expectations: The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures
      05 Jul 2006Working Paper Summaries

      Advertising and Expectations: The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures

      by Anita Elberse and Bharat N. Anand
      This research examines how advertising affects market-wide sales expectations for pre-release movies. The authors use data on advertising expenditures and an online stock market simulation, The Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), to track more than 280 movies released between 2001 and 2003. Their findings show that advertising affects the updating of market-wide expectations prior to release, and that this effect is stronger the higher the product quality. Key concepts include:
      • Stock market simulations, such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange, can provide data on test markets, and provide clues about the quality of movies and the appeal of initial advertisements.
      • Studios should spend less money on advertising low-quality movies.
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      Author Abstract

      What is the effect of pre-release advertising on the demand for a product? And does the magnitude of that effect vary according to the quality of the good? We empirically examine these questions in the context of the motion picture industry. We make use of a unique, proprietary data set that covers weekly television advertising expenditures, weekly expectations of the market performance, and quality measures for a sample of nearly 300 movies. We find that advertising affects the updating of market-wide expectations prior to release, and that this effect is stronger the higher the product quality. The latter suggests that advertising plays an informative--and not simply a persuasive--role.

      Paper Information

      • Full Working Paper Text
      • Working Paper Publication Date: September 30, 2005
      • HBS Working Paper Number: 05-060
      • Faculty Unit(s): Marketing; Strategy
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        Bharat N. Anand
        Bharat N. Anand
        Henry R. Byers Professor of Business Administration
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        Anita Elberse
        Anita Elberse
        Lincoln Filene Professor of Business Administration
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        • Advertising
        • Entertainment and Recreation
        • Advertising
        • Motion Pictures and Video
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