Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Working Knowledge
Business Research for Business Leaders
  • Browse All Articles
  • Popular Articles
  • Cold Call Podcasts
  • About Us
  • Leadership
  • Marketing
  • Finance
  • Management
  • Entrepreneurship
  • All Topics...
  • Topics
    • COVID-19
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Finance
    • Gender
    • Globalization
    • Leadership
    • Management
    • Negotiation
    • Social Enterprise
    • Strategy
  • Sections
    • Book
    • Cold Call Podcast
    • HBS Case
    • In Practice
    • Lessons from the Classroom
    • Op-Ed
    • Research & Ideas
    • Research Event
    • Sharpening Your Skills
    • What Do You Think?
    • Working Paper Summaries
  • Browse All
    • COVID-19 Business Impact Center
      COVID-19 Business Impact Center
      Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?
      25 Jul 2016Working Paper Summaries

      Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

      by Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger
      Why do countries find it so hard to get their deficits under control? The authors bring together data on private sector forecasts with official government forecasts of 26 countries, and identify systematic patterns in errors that official budget agencies make in their forecasts—particularly over-optimistic forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances. Incorporating private sector forecasts into the budget process could reduce violations of limits set by fiscal rules by identifying errors ahead of time rather than just afterwards.
      LinkedIn
      Email

      Author Abstract

      Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For example, euro area governments during the period 1999–2007 assiduously and inaccurately avoided forecasting deficit levels that would exceed the 3% Stability and Growth Pact threshold; meanwhile, private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. As a result, using private sector forecasts as an input into the government budgeting-making process would probably reduce official forecast errors for budget deficits.

      Paper Information

      • Full Working Paper Text
      • Working Paper Publication Date: June 2016
      • HBS Working Paper Number: NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22349
      • Faculty Unit(s): Business, Government and International Economy
        Trending
          • 29 Oct 2020
          • Research & Ideas

          The COVID Gender Gap: Why Fewer Women Are Dying

          • 13 Jul 2020
          • Research & Ideas

          Merck CEO Ken Frazier Discusses a COVID Cure, Racism, and Why Leaders Need to Walk the Talk

          • 13 Jan 2021
          • Research & Ideas

          How 'Small C' Change Can Beat Large-Scale Rebuilding

          • 11 Jan 2021
          • Research & Ideas

          Is A/B Testing Effective? Evidence from 35,000 Startups

          • 25 Feb 2019
          • Research & Ideas

          How Gender Stereotypes Kill a Woman’s Self-Confidence

      Find Related Articles
      • Forecasting and Prediction

      Sign up for our weekly newsletter

      Interested in improving your business? Learn about fresh research and ideas from Harvard Business School faculty.
      ǁ
      Campus Map
      Harvard Business School Working Knowledge
      Baker Library | Bloomberg Center
      Soldiers Field
      Boston, MA 02163
      Email: Editor-in-Chief
      →Map & Directions
      →More Contact Information
      • Make a Gift
      • Site Map
      • Jobs
      • Harvard University
      • Trademarks
      • Policies
      • Digital Accessibility
      Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College