Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Working Knowledge
Business Research for Business Leaders
  • Browse All Articles
  • Popular Articles
  • Cold Call Podcast
  • Managing the Future of Work Podcast
  • About Us
  • Book
  • Leadership
  • Marketing
  • Finance
  • Management
  • Entrepreneurship
  • All Topics...
  • Topics
    • COVID-19
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Finance
    • Gender
    • Globalization
    • Leadership
    • Management
    • Negotiation
    • Social Enterprise
    • Strategy
  • Sections
    • Book
    • Podcasts
    • HBS Case
    • In Practice
    • Lessons from the Classroom
    • Op-Ed
    • Research & Ideas
    • Research Event
    • Sharpening Your Skills
    • What Do You Think?
    • Working Paper Summaries
  • Browse All
    Bubbles for Fama
    20 Mar 2017Working Paper Summaries

    Bubbles for Fama

    by Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You
    Nobel laureate Eugene F. Fama has famously claimed that there is no such thing as a bubble, which he defines as a large price run-up that predictably crashes. Analyzing industry data for the US and internationally, the authors find that Fama is mostly right that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward. Yet the authors show that there is much more to a bubble than merely increases in prices; they show a number of characteristics that predict an end to the bubble.
    LinkedIn
    Email

    Author Abstract

    We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up, can all help forecast an eventual crash and future returns; and (4) some of these characteristics can help investors earn superior returns by timing the bubble. Results hold similarly in U.S. and international samples.

    Paper Information

    • Full Working Paper Text
    • Working Paper Publication Date: February 2017
    • HBS Working Paper Number: NBER Working Paper Series, No. 23191
    • Faculty Unit(s): Finance
      Trending
        • 21 Jun 2022
        • HBS Case

        Free Isn’t Always Better: How Slack Holds Its Own Against Microsoft Teams

        • 22 Jun 2022
        • Book

        Four Elements for Finding the Right Career Path

        • 13 Jun 2022
        • Research & Ideas

        Extroverts, Your Colleagues Wish You Would Just Shut Up and Listen

        • 25 Jan 2022
        • Research & Ideas

        More Proof That Money Can Buy Happiness (or a Life with Less Stress)

        • 14 Feb 2022
        • Research & Ideas

        Curiosity, Not Coding: 6 Skills Leaders Need in the Digital Age

    Robin Greenwood
    Robin Greenwood
    George Gund Professor of Finance and Banking
    Anne and James F. Rothenberg Faculty Fellow
    Senior Associate Dean for Faculty Development and Research
    Contact
    Send an email
    → More Articles
    Find Related Articles
    • Stocks
    • Price Bubble
    • Forecasting and Prediction
    • Economics

    Sign up for our weekly newsletter

    Interested in improving your business? Learn about fresh research and ideas from Harvard Business School faculty.
    ǁ
    Campus Map
    Harvard Business School Working Knowledge
    Baker Library | Bloomberg Center
    Soldiers Field
    Boston, MA 02163
    Email: Editor-in-Chief
    →Map & Directions
    →More Contact Information
    • Make a Gift
    • Site Map
    • Jobs
    • Harvard University
    • Trademarks
    • Policies
    • Accessibility
    • Digital Accessibility
    Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College