Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Working Knowledge
Business Research for Business Leaders
  • Browse All Articles
  • Popular Articles
  • Cold Call Podcasts
  • About Us
  • Leadership
  • Marketing
  • Finance
  • Management
  • Entrepreneurship
  • All Topics...
  • Topics
    • COVID-19
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Finance
    • Gender
    • Globalization
    • Leadership
    • Management
    • Negotiation
    • Social Enterprise
    • Strategy
  • Sections
    • Book
    • Cold Call Podcast
    • HBS Case
    • In Practice
    • Lessons from the Classroom
    • Op-Ed
    • Research & Ideas
    • Research Event
    • Sharpening Your Skills
    • What Do You Think?
    • Working Paper Summaries
  • Browse All
    • COVID-19 Business Impact Center
      COVID-19 Business Impact Center
      Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic
      21 Jul 2020Working Paper Summaries

      Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic

      by Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton
      Findings from a nationwide survey underscore the importance of demand projections and interdependencies among businesses for owners’ reopening decisions. Businesses expect the demand for their services will be greatly depressed for many months to come.
      LinkedIn
      Email

      Author Abstract

      How quickly will American businesses reopen after COVID-19 lockdowns end? We use a nationwide survey of small businesses to measure firms’ expectations about their re-opening and future demand. A plurality of firms in our sample expect to reopen within days of the end of legal restrictions, but a sizable minority expect to delay their reopening. While health-related variables, such as COVID-19 case rates and physical proximity of workers, do explain the prevalence and expected duration of regulated lockdown, these variables have little or no correlation with post-lockdown reopening intentions. Instead, almost one half of closed or partially open businesses said that their reopening would depend on the reopening of related businesses, including customers and suppliers. Owners expect demand to be one-third lower than before the crisis through autumn. Firms with more pessimistic expectations about demand predict a later reopening. Using an instrumental variables strategy, we estimate the relationship between demand expectations and reopening. These estimates suggest that post-lockdown delays in reopening can be explained by low levels of expected demand.

      Paper Information

      • Full Working Paper Text
      • Working Paper Publication Date: June 2020
      • HBS Working Paper Number: HBS Working Paper #20-132
      • Faculty Unit(s): Negotiation, Organizations & Markets; Entrepreneurial Management
        Trending
          • 19 Jan 2021
          • In Practice

          Leadership Advice for Biden: Restore a Sense of Calm

          • 29 Oct 2020
          • Research & Ideas

          The COVID Gender Gap: Why Fewer Women Are Dying

          • 13 Jul 2020
          • Research & Ideas

          Merck CEO Ken Frazier Discusses a COVID Cure, Racism, and Why Leaders Need to Walk the Talk

          • 18 Jan 2021
          • Book

          How Thinking Like a Startup Helps Governments Solve More Problems

          • 25 Feb 2019
          • Research & Ideas

          How Gender Stereotypes Kill a Woman’s Self-Confidence

      Zoe B. Cullen
      Zoe B. Cullen
      Assistant Professor of Business Administration
      Contact
      Send an email
      → More Articles
      Michael Luca
      Michael Luca
      Lee J. Styslinger III Associate Professor of Business Administration
      Contact
      Send an email
      → More Articles
      Christopher T. Stanton
      Christopher T. Stanton
      Marvin Bower Associate Professor
      Contact
      Send an email
      → More Articles
      Find Related Articles
      • COVID-19
      • Demand and Consumers
      • Forecasting and Prediction

      Sign up for our weekly newsletter

      Interested in improving your business? Learn about fresh research and ideas from Harvard Business School faculty.
      ǁ
      Campus Map
      Harvard Business School Working Knowledge
      Baker Library | Bloomberg Center
      Soldiers Field
      Boston, MA 02163
      Email: Editor-in-Chief
      →Map & Directions
      →More Contact Information
      • Make a Gift
      • Site Map
      • Jobs
      • Harvard University
      • Trademarks
      • Policies
      • Digital Accessibility
      Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College