First Look

Abstract—Firms increasingly use both mass-media advertising and targeted personal selling to successfully promote products and brands in the marketplace. In this study, we jointly examine the effect of mass-media advertising and personal selling in the context of U.S. presidential elections, where the former is referred to as the "air war" and the latter the "ground game." Specifically, we look at how different types of advertising―candidates' own ads vs. outside ads―and personal selling―in the form of utilizing field offices―affect voter preferences. Further, we ask how these various campaign activities affect the outcome of elections through their diverse effects on various types of people. We find that personal selling has a stronger effect among partisan voters, while candidates' own advertising is better received by non-partisans. We also find that personal selling accounted for the Democratic victories in the 2008 and 2012 elections and that advertising was critical only in a close election, such as the one in 2004. Interestingly, had the Democrats received more outside advertising in 2004, the election would have ended up in a 269-269 tie. Our findings generate insights on how to allocate resources across and within channels.

Download working paper: http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/15-033_d218ec59-b694-4f4f-ba4e-0e64b54e4c34.pdf

Abstract—We examine the extent to which financial market development impacts the diffusion of 16 major technologies, looking across 55 countries, from 1870 to 2000. We find that greater depth in financial markets leads to faster technology diffusion for more capital-intensive technologies, but only in periods closer to the invention of the technology. In fact, we find no differential effect of financial depth on the diffusion of capital-intensive technologies in the late stages of diffusion or in late adopters. Our results are consistent with a view that local financial markets play a critical role in facilitating the process of experimentation that is required for the initial commercialization of technologies. This evidence also points to an important mechanism relating financial market development to technology diffusion and economic growth.

Download working paper: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2520551

Abstract—This working paper examines the origins and development of the Koç Group, which grew to be the largest business group in Turkey. This enterprise was an important actor in the emergence of modern business enterprise in the new state of the Republic of Turkey from the 1920s. After World War II it diversified rapidly, forming part of a cluster of business groups that dominated the Turkish economy alongside state-owned firms. This study shows how the founder of the Group, Vehbi Koç, formulated his business model and analyzes how his firm evolved into a diversified business group. The research supports prevailing explanations of business groups, which identify the role of institutional voids, government policies, and contact capabilities, but it also builds on and extends earlier suggestions in both the management and business history literatures that entrepreneurship needs incorporating more strongly as an explanatory factor. This working paper argues that Koç acted as both a Kirznerian and Schumpeterian entrepreneur to build his business group, both in its formative stages and later in its subsequent growth into a diversified group.

Download working paper: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2520237

Abstract—Consumer review websites leverage the wisdom of the crowd, with each product being reviewed many times (some with more than 1,000 reviews). Because of this, the way in which information is aggregated is a central decision faced by consumer review websites. Given a set of reviews, what is the optimal way to construct an average rating? We offer a structural approach to answering this question, allowing for (1) reviewers to vary in stringency and accuracy, (2) reviewers to be influenced by existing reviews, and (3) product quality to change over time. Applying this approach to restaurant reviews from Yelp.com, we construct optimal ratings for all restaurants and compare them to the arithmetic averages displayed by Yelp. Depending on how we interpret the downward trend of reviews within a restaurant, we find 19.1%-41.38% of the simple average ratings are more than 0.15 stars away from optimal ratings, and 5.33%-19.1% are more than 0.25 stars away at the end of our sample period. Moreover, the deviation grows significantly as a restaurant accumulates reviews over time. This suggests that large gains could be made by implementing optimal ratings, especially as Yelp grows. Our algorithm can be flexibly applied to many different review settings.

Download working paper: http://www.people.hbs.edu/mluca/OptimalAggregation.pdf

Abstract—An emerging new literature brings unique ideas from corporate finance to the study of international trade and investment. Insights about differences in the development of financial institutions across countries, the role of financial constraints, and the use of internal capital markets are proving central in understanding international economics. The ability to access financial capital to pay fixed and variable costs affects choices firms make regarding export entry and operations, and, as a consequence, influence aggregate trade patterns. Financial frictions and the use of internal capital markets shape decisions that multinationals make regarding production locations, integration, and corporate governance. This article surveys this recent research with the goal of highlighting the main themes it explores, the key results it establishes, and the leading open questions it raises.

Download working paper: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20634

Abstract—We review the recent literature on the financing of innovation, inclusive of large companies and new startups. This research strand has been very active over the past five years, generating important new findings, questioning some long-held beliefs, and creating its own puzzles. Our review outlines the growing body of work that documents a role for debt financing related to innovation. We highlight the new literature on learning and experimentation across multi-stage innovation projects and how this impacts optimal financing design. We further highlight the strong interaction between financing choices for innovation and changing external conditions, especially reduced experimentation costs.

Download working paper: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2519572