First Look

Abstract—As is now well documented, aid is given for both political as well as economic reasons. The conventional wisdom is that politically motivated aid is less effective in promoting developmental objectives. We examine the ex-post performance ratings of World Bank projects and generally find that projects that are potentially politically motivated-such as those granted to governments holding a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council or an Executive Directorship at the World Bank-are no more likely, on average, to get a negative quality rating than other projects. When aid is given to Security Council members with higher short-term debt, however, a negative quality rating is more likely. So we find evidence that World Bank project quality suffers as a consequence of political influence only when the recipient country is economically vulnerable in the first place.

Publisher's link: http://ftp.iza.org/dp4820.pdf

Abstract—Retail inventory is a statistic that is closely watched by retailers as well as their investors, lenders, and suppliers. Retailers not only benefit from inventory, but also bear the cost of excess inventory. Investors, lenders, and suppliers interpret this statistic for signs of the retailer's health, future sales prospects, and impending costs. While prior research on inventory has typically focused primarily on the retailer's profit and cash flow, this paper synthesizes the perspectives of investors, lenders, and suppliers and shows that inventory turns, a commonly used metric to identify excess inventory, has limitations that reduce its utility for all these stakeholders. This paper presents a new metric, adjusted inventory turns, which overcomes the drawbacks of inventory turns and can be uniformly utilized by all stakeholders to assess whether a retailer is carrying too much or too little inventory. We explain applications of the metric with examples and lay out prescriptions for retailers.

Abstract—We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our analysis is based on a theoretical model of preferred habitat in which clienteles with strong preferences for specific maturities trade with arbitrageurs. Consistent with the model, we find that (i) the supply of long- relative to short-term bonds is positively related to the term spread, (ii) supply predicts positively long-term bonds' excess returns even after controlling for the term spread and the Cochrane-Piazzesi factor, (iii) the effects of supply are stronger for longer maturities, and (iv) following periods when arbitrageurs have lost money, both supply and the term spread are stronger predictors of excess returns.

Abstract—We find a negative relationship between bank distress and the level, quality, and trajectory of firm-level innovation during the Great Depression, particularly for R&D firms operating in capital intensive industries. However, we also show that because a sufficient number of R&D intensive firms were located in counties with lower levels of bank distress, or were operating in less capital intensive industries, the negative effects were mitigated in aggregate. Although Depression era bank distress was associated with the stifling of innovation, our results also help to explain why technological development was still robust following one of the largest shocks in the history of the U.S. banking system.