Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Working Knowledge
Business Research for Business Leaders
  • Browse All Articles
  • Popular Articles
  • Cold Call Podcast
  • Managing the Future of Work Podcast
  • About Us
  • Book
  • Leadership
  • Marketing
  • Finance
  • Management
  • Entrepreneurship
  • All Topics...
  • Topics
    • COVID-19
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Finance
    • Gender
    • Globalization
    • Leadership
    • Management
    • Negotiation
    • Social Enterprise
    • Strategy
  • Sections
    • Book
    • Podcasts
    • HBS Case
    • In Practice
    • Lessons from the Classroom
    • Op-Ed
    • Research & Ideas
    • Research Event
    • Sharpening Your Skills
    • What Do You Think?
    • Working Paper Summaries
  • Browse All
    Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting
    13 Apr 2007Working Paper Summaries

    Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting

    by Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
    Benchmarking and forecasting firm level performance are key activities for both managers and investors. Retailer performance can be tracked using a number of metrics including sales, inventory, and gross margin. For operational reasons, the sales, inventory, and gross margin for a retailer are interrelated. Retailers often use inventory and margin to increase sales; and sales, conversely, provide input to the retailer’s decisions on inventory and margins. Inventory and margin also influence each other. This research uses firm-level annual and quarterly data for a large cross-section of U.S. retailers listed on NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ to construct a model that examines the interrelationships among sales per store, inventory per store, and margin. Key concepts include:
    • This model can be used to benchmark retailers' performance in sales, inventory, and gross margin simultaneously.
    • The model can also be used to generate sales forecasts even when sales were managed using inventory and gross margin.
    LinkedIn
    Email

    Author Abstract

    As numerous papers have argued, sales, inventory, and gross margin for a retailer are interrelated. We construct a simultaneous equation model to establish these interrelationships at a firm level. Using publicly available financial data we estimate the six causal effects among sales, inventory, and gross margin. Our results show that sales, inventory, and gross margin are mutually endogenous. In particular, we provide new evidence of the impact of inventory on sales and the interrelationship between gross margin and inventory. We also estimate the effects of exogenous explanatory variables such as store growth, proportion of new inventory, capital investment per store, selling expenditure, and index of consumer sentiment on sales, inventory, and gross margin. We show that our model can be used to benchmark retailers' performance in sales, inventory, and gross margin simultaneously. Finally, we show that our model can be used to generate sales forecasts even when sales were managed using inventory and gross margin. In numerical tests, sales forecasts from our model are more accurate than forecasts from time-series models that ignore inventory and price as well as forecasts from financial analysts.

    Paper Information

    • Full Working Paper Text
    • Working Paper Publication Date: March 2007
    • HBS Working Paper Number: 07-056
    • Faculty Unit(s): Technology and Operations Management
      Trending
        • 14 Mar 2023
        • In Practice

        What Does the Failure of Silicon Valley Bank Say About the State of Finance?

        • 16 Mar 2023
        • Research & Ideas

        Why Business Travel Still Matters in a Zoom World

        • 25 Jan 2022
        • Research & Ideas

        More Proof That Money Can Buy Happiness (or a Life with Less Stress)

        • 25 Feb 2019
        • Research & Ideas

        How Gender Stereotypes Kill a Woman’s Self-Confidence

        • 13 Mar 2023
        • Op-Ed

        How Leaders Should Leave

    Ananth Raman
    Ananth Raman
    UPS Foundation Professor of Business Logistics
    Chair, OPM
    Contact
    Send an email
    → More Articles
    Find Related Articles
    • Distribution Channels
    • Retail
    • North & Central America
    • United States

    Sign up for our weekly newsletter

    Interested in improving your business? Learn about fresh research and ideas from Harvard Business School faculty.
    This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
    ǁ
    Campus Map
    Harvard Business School Working Knowledge
    Baker Library | Bloomberg Center
    Soldiers Field
    Boston, MA 02163
    Email: Editor-in-Chief
    →Map & Directions
    →More Contact Information
    • Make a Gift
    • Site Map
    • Jobs
    • Harvard University
    • Trademarks
    • Policies
    • Accessibility
    • Digital Accessibility
    Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College