First Look

Abstract— The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman’s Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between leverage, firm fragility, and exchange rate movements in emerging markets. While the relationship between firm leverage and distress scores varies over time, the relationship between firm size and corporate vulnerability is relatively time invariant. All else being equal, large firms in emerging markets are more financially vulnerable and also systemically important. Consistent with the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations in Gabaix (2011), idiosyncratic shocks to the sales growth of large firms are positively and significantly correlated with GDP growth in our emerging markets sample. Relatedly, the negative impact of exchange rate shocks has a more acute impact on the sales growth of the more highly levered large firms.

Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55504

Abstract— Various forms of substitutability are essential for establishing the existence of equilibria and other useful properties in diverse settings such as matching, auctions, and exchange economies with indivisible goods. We extend earlier models’ definitions of substitutability to settings in which each agent can be both a buyer in some transactions and a seller in others and show that all these definitions are equivalent. We then introduce a new class of substitutable preferences that allows us to model intermediaries with production capacity. We also prove that substitutability is preserved under economically important transformations such as trade endowments, mergers, and limited liability.

Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55499

Abstract— Medicare’s Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) has been credited with lowering risk-adjusted readmission rates for targeted conditions at general acute care hospitals. However, these reductions appear to be illusory or overstated. This is because a concurrent change in electronic transaction standards allowed hospitals to document a larger number of diagnoses per claim, which had the effect of reducing risk-adjusted patient readmission rates. Prior studies of the HRRP relied upon control groups’ having lower baseline readmission rates, which could falsely create the appearance that readmission rates are changing more in the treatment than in the control group. Accounting for the revised standards reduced the decline in risk-adjusted readmission rates for targeted conditions by 48 percent. After further adjusting for differences in pre-HRRP readmission rates across samples, we found that declines for targeted conditions at general acute care hospitals were statistically indistinguishable from declines in two control samples. Either the HRRP had no effect on readmissions, or it led to a system-wide reduction in readmissions that was roughly half as large as prior estimates have suggested.

Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55509

Abstract— Recurrent concerns over debt sustainability in emerging and developed nations have prompted renewed debate on the role of fiscal rules. Their optimality, however, remains unclear. We provide a quantitative analysis of fiscal rules in a standard model of sovereign debt accumulation and default modified to incorporate quasi-hyperbolic preferences. For reasons of political economy or aggregation of citizens’ preferences, government preferences are present biased, resulting in over-accumulation of debt. Calibrating this parameter with values in the literature, the model can reproduce debt levels and frequency of default typical of emerging markets even if the household impatience parameter is calibrated to local interest rates. A quantitative exercise finds welfare gains of the optimal fiscal policy to be economically substantial and the optimal rule to not entail a countercyclical fiscal policy. A simple debt rule that limits the maximum amount of debt is analyzed and compared to a simple deficit rule that limits the maximum amount of deficit per period. Whereas the deficit rule does not perform well, the debt rule yields welfare gains virtually equal to the optimal rule.

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Abstract— Innovation and new product development are the lifeblood of firms in R&D-intensive industries, yet malfunctioning products can cause immense damage. Product failures thus create managerial challenges and opportunities for focal firms and their competitors. Focal firm failures often result in sales decreases and cost increases associated with remedial public relations and manufacturing activities. Competitor firm failures, however, can create market opportunities and elicit strategic responses by focal firms. We develop theory and provide empirical evidence of how innovative activity changes in response to product recalls in the U.S. medical device industry. Focal firm recalls slow incremental innovation while competitor firm recalls accelerate incremental and major innovation. Recall prevention and remediation efforts are thus more important than previously suggested, due to significant competitor responses.

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Abstract— This working paper examines key barriers to business sustainability discussed at a multidisciplinary conference held at the Harvard Business School in 2018. Drawing on perspectives from both the historical and business literatures, speakers debated the historical success and future opportunities for voluntary business actions to advance sustainability. Roadblocks include misaligned incentives, missing institutions, inertia of economic systems, and the concept of sustainability itself. It appears that overcoming these roadblocks will require systematic interventions and alternative normative concepts.

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Abstract— Multiple-choice exams play a critical role in university admissions across the world. A key question is whether imposing penalties for wrong answers on these exams deters guessing from women more than men, disadvantaging female test-takers. We consider data from a large-scale, high-stakes policy change that removed penalties for wrong answers on the national college entry exam in Chile. We find that the policy change significantly reduced a large gender gap in questions skipped. It also reduced gender gaps in performance, leading to increased representation of women in the top percentiles of achievement.

Abstract— We explore how beliefs respond to noisy information about own ability across a range of tasks, with a particular focus on how gender stereotypes impact belief updating. Participants in our experiments take tests of their ability across different domains. Absent feedback, beliefs of own ability are strongly influenced by gender stereotypes. We then provide noisy feedback about own absolute performance to participants and elicit posterior beliefs. Gender stereotypes have significant predictive power for posterior beliefs, both through their influence on prior beliefs (as predicted by a Bayesian model) and through their influence on updating. Both men and women’s beliefs are more responsive to information in gender congruent domains than gender incongruent domains. This is primarily driven by differential reactions to exogenously received good news about own ability: both men and women react more to good news when it arrives in a gender congruent domain than when it arrives in a gender incongruent domain. Our results have important implications for understanding how feedback shapes gender gaps in self-assessments.

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Abstract— We document a strong effect of pension and insurance company (P&I) assets on the long end of the yield curve. Using data from 26 countries, the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bond yields is negatively related to the ratio of pension assets (in funded and private pension and life insurance arrangements) to GDP, suggesting that preferred-habitat demand by the P&I sector for long-dated assets drives the long end of the yield curve. We draw on changes in regulations in several European countries between 2008 and 2013 to provide well-identified evidence on the effect of the P&I sector on yields and to show that P&I demand is in part driven by hedging linked to the regulatory discount curve. When regulators reduce the dependence of the regulatory discount curve on a particular security, P&I demand for the security falls and its yield increases. These effects extend beyond long government bonds. Our results suggest that pension discount rules can have a destabilizing impact on bond markets that reverses once rules are changed.

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Abstract— Does public ownership improve employment diversity? Organizational researchers theorize that increased transparency to regulators and the public should lead firms to conform to legal and social norms—but that social closure and decoupling should preserve the status quo. Empirical research has been difficult because we lack data on comparable private firms and because firms likely self-select into going public. We construct a new, nationally representative dataset that links firms' filings for initial public offerings to longitudinal data on employment composition from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. We construct a set of comparable firms by looking at companies that filed and then withdrew a plan for an IPO. To account for selection bias in withdrawal and IPO success, we instrument the transition to public ownership using market returns in the book-building phase of the firms' IPO attempts. We find no evidence that moving from private to public ownership increases the representation of women or nonwhite workers or managers. We discuss the implications of this finding for our ability to generalize findings in organizational research.

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Abstract— This paper introduces algorithmic micro-foundations for formulating and solving strategic problems. It shows how the languages and disciplines of theoretical computer science, “artificial intelligence,” and computational complexity theory can be used to devise a set of heuristics, blueprints, and procedures that can help strategic managers formulate problems, evaluate their difficulty, define “good enough solutions,” and optimize the ways in which they will solve them in advance of attempting to solve them. The paper introduces both a framework for the analysis of strategic problems in computational terms and a set of prescriptions for strategic problem formulation and problem solving relative to which deviations and counterproductive moves can be specified and measured.

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Abstract— We examine how heterogeneity in customers’ multi-homing tendencies affects a platform’s response to new entrants in its market. We develop a formal model to generate empirical predictions and then test them leveraging a historical setting: TV broadcast station entry into local newspaper markets from 1945 to 1963. We show that after a TV station enters the newspaper market, newspaper firms with more multi-homing consumers had higher subscription prices, circulation, and ad rates. These results suggest that heterogeneity in customer multi-homing is a significant factor that can moderate platforms’ competitive strategies.

Abstract— Despite substantial normative and positive appeal, the idea of benefit-based taxation plays a minor role in modern tax theory. One obstacle to its playing a greater role is confusion over the many ways in which theorists have argued that benefit-based taxes should be determined. In this paper, we provide clear descriptions and graphical representations of the four major approaches to benefit-based taxation: Lindahl (1919), Moulin (1987), Brennan (1976a), and Hines (2000). We also show how these approaches can be applied to Smith’s theory of so-called Classical Benefit-Based Taxation, the most prominent general benefit-based optimal tax framework and a potential focal point for generating consensus on the specifics of benefit-based taxation.

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In 2017, Jay Desai, the CEO of Boston-based health care technology company PatientPing, had to consider a number of interrelated pricing challenges. Founded in late 2013, PatientPing sold a software platform that allowed health care providers to receive real-time notifications (“Pings”) when one of their patients was admitted to or discharged from a health care facility. Pings allowed providers to coordinate with one another to reduce costs and ensure that patients were receiving the highest quality of care. PatientPing sold its platform to a range of customers, from small skilled nursing facilities to large health systems, and management had to figure out how to optimally price the platform for the company’s various customer segments. Students must consider whether PatientPing’s pricing, sales team, and sales process are optimal based on the unique challenges of the health care industry. Additionally, students are asked to respond to three specific sales and marketing scenarios faced by Desai in mid-2017.

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Explains how to identify and capitalize on marketplace design opportunities. Defines markets and marketplaces and describes the basic functions of each. Discusses attributes (e.g., heterogeneity of participants' preferences and asymmetry in available information) that determine whether and how marketplaces create value. Explains common causes of market failure and presents a framework for designing marketplaces in response. Discusses tactics for building trust and liquidity when launching new marketplaces as well as challenges encountered as marketplaces mature (e.g., congestion and disintermediation).

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In early 2016, RWE, a utility that operates nuclear power plants in Germany, came under scrutiny from regulators and the media over the adequacy of its provisions for costs of decommissioning and dismantling (D&D) its nuclear power plants. Accounting standards required utilities to record the present value of projected D&D costs as a liability. However, there were many uncertainties associated with these estimates given the actual cash outlays that would be incurred decades into the future. In addition, German government bond rates used to discount projected future costs had fallen to record lows, and RWE as well as its competitors were struggling with depressed electricity prices. Would RWE's provisions be adequate to cover the future costs?

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Vittorio Colao, CEO of telecommunication giant Vodafone, must respond to reports of disturbing accounting practices at two of Vodafone’s operating companies. In one case, €60 million have been misreported due to a series of failures to check manual accounting processes. The situation has been escalated to Vodafone’s audit committee, which expects Colao and his team to act drastically. In the second case, €7 million have been misreported through deferred recognition of costs into the future. The two cases challenge Colao’s organizational model of International Values and Local Roots that aims to maintain productive tension between global mandates and local practices. Colao meticulously designed his model based on the key value of trust, his unwavering convictions earning him the moniker of the “benevolent dictator.” Colao is acutely aware that his response to the accounting discrepancies will be a referendum on his leadership for over 120,000 employees worldwide. If he doesn’t make the right decisions, the consequences will reverberate throughout the organization and erode confidence in the value of trust that he relentlessly worked to establish.

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Işıl Akdemir Evlioğlu, executive vice president of marketing at Garanti Payment Systems (GPS), a subsidiary of Garanti Bank, is grappling with three questions. First, should GPS create its own mobile app for credit card customers or leverage the bank’s already successful mobile banking app? Second, if a separate app was developed, then who should manage it? GPS managed the bank’s credit card business and was as a separate entity, but the bank’s digital assets were managed exclusively by the bank. Third, if a separate app was not developed, then would the required breadth and depth of functionality for the credit card customers be delivered? If a separate app was not developed, then would GPS be able to design one when they had never done so before? The credit card business included a popular loyalty program and GPS leadership was very focused on customer engagement and experience for program enrollees, but how best to do that was a critical question.

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