<form name="aspnetForm" method="post" action="memory-and-representativeness?item=memory-and-representativeness" id="aspnetForm">
<input type="hidden" name="MSOWebPartPage_PostbackSource" id="MSOWebPartPage_PostbackSource" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOTlPn_SelectedWpId" id="MSOTlPn_SelectedWpId" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOTlPn_View" id="MSOTlPn_View" value="0" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOTlPn_ShowSettings" id="MSOTlPn_ShowSettings" value="False" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOGallery_SelectedLibrary" id="MSOGallery_SelectedLibrary" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOGallery_FilterString" id="MSOGallery_FilterString" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOTlPn_Button" id="MSOTlPn_Button" value="none" />
<input type="hidden" name="__REQUESTDIGEST" id="__REQUESTDIGEST" value="noDigest" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOSPWebPartManager_DisplayModeName" id="MSOSPWebPartManager_DisplayModeName" value="Browse" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOSPWebPartManager_ExitingDesignMode" id="MSOSPWebPartManager_ExitingDesignMode" value="false" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOWebPartPage_Shared" id="MSOWebPartPage_Shared" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOLayout_LayoutChanges" id="MSOLayout_LayoutChanges" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOLayout_InDesignMode" id="MSOLayout_InDesignMode" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOSPWebPartManager_OldDisplayModeName" id="MSOSPWebPartManager_OldDisplayModeName" value="Browse" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOSPWebPartManager_StartWebPartEditingName" id="MSOSPWebPartManager_StartWebPartEditingName" value="false" />
<input type="hidden" name="MSOSPWebPartManager_EndWebPartEditing" id="MSOSPWebPartManager_EndWebPartEditing" value="false" />
<input type="hidden" name="__VIEWSTATE" id="__VIEWSTATE" value="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" />

<script type="text/javascript">
//<![CDATA[
var MSOWebPartPageFormName = 'aspnetForm';
var g_presenceEnabled = true;var _fV4UI=true;var _spPageContextInfo = {webServerRelativeUrl: "\u002f", webLanguage: 1033, currentLanguage: 1033, webUIVersion:4,pageListId:"{229a3fa1-d23f-4194-af04-83f712f16168}",pageItemId:24, alertsEnabled:true, siteServerRelativeUrl: "\u002f", allowSilverlightPrompt:'True'};//]]>
</script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="/_layouts/1033/init.js?rev=mdjxRHK1V7KZ%2BuOTcNNcmQ%3D%3D"></script>
<script src="/WebResource.axd?d=KzYTxvKcuTEp7j51joTea5GVr92AuJ4SL5aQ9QUnLuUrG7rTi8YCbgNYedMwdv6fDwv5Ou7X64HliGCav7hiwmuBylh2hjGhv6JU0lkokc63lAPUBD0MIaMGwGty9ueA82idlgs7ktVQj8-X5TCDW8nNPkA1&t=636767462854137053" type="text/javascript"></script>
<script type="text/javascript">
//<![CDATA[
var dlc_fvsi = {"DefaultViews":[],"ViewUrls":[],"WebUrl":"\/"};//]]>
</script>

<script type="text/javascript">
//<![CDATA[
function _spNavigateHierarchy(nodeDiv, dataSourceId, dataPath, url, listInContext, type) {
    CoreInvoke('ProcessDefaultNavigateHierarchy', nodeDiv, dataSourceId, dataPath, url, listInContext, type, document.forms.aspnetForm, "", "\u002fitem\u002fmemory-and-representativeness");

}
//]]>
</script>
<input type="hidden" name="__VIEWSTATEGENERATOR" id="__VIEWSTATEGENERATOR" value="7BAFC84E" />
<script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.core.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.core.js?rev=7ByNlH\u00252BvcgRJg\u00252BRCctdC0w\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.res.resx", "\u002f_layouts\u002fScriptResx.ashx?culture=en\u00252Dus\u0026name=SP\u00252ERes\u0026rev=b6\u00252FcRx1a6orhAQ\u00252FcF\u00252B0ytQ\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.ui.dialog.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.ui.dialog.js?rev=Tpcmo1\u00252FSu6R0yewHowDl5g\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("sp.ui.dialog.js", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.ui.dialog.js", "sp.res.resx");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("core.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002f1033\u002fcore.js?rev=Emb5hNX1RZMNXk9oS82yvA\u00253D\u00253D");</script>
<script type="text/javascript">
//<![CDATA[
var _spFormDigestRefreshInterval = 1440000;window.g_updateFormDigestPageLoaded = new Date(); window.g_updateFormDigestPageLoaded.setDate(window.g_updateFormDigestPageLoaded.getDate() -5);function loadMDN2() { EnsureScript('MDN.js', typeof(loadFilterFn), null); }
function loadMDN1() { ExecuteOrDelayUntilScriptLoaded(loadMDN2, 'sp.ribbon.js'); }
_spBodyOnLoadFunctionNames.push('loadMDN1');//]]>
</script>
<script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.runtime.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.runtime.js?rev=IGffcZfunndj0247nOxKVg\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("sp.runtime.js", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.runtime.js", "sp.res.resx");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.js?rev=\u00252B4ZEyA892P3T0504qi0paw\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("sp.js", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.js", "sp.runtime.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.js", "sp.ui.dialog.js");RegisterSodDep("sp.js", "sp.res.resx");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("cui.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fcui.js?rev=OOyJv78CADNBeet\u00252FvTvniQ\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("inplview", "\u002f_layouts\u002finplview.js?rev=WB6Gy8a027aeNCq7koVCUg\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("inplview", "core.js");RegisterSodDep("inplview", "sp.js");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("ribbon", "\u002f_layouts\u002fsp.ribbon.js?rev=F\u00252BUEJ66rbXzSvpf7nN69wQ\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "core.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "sp.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "cui.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "sp.res.resx");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "sp.runtime.js");RegisterSodDep("ribbon", "inplview");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("sp.ui.policy.resources.resx", "\u002f_layouts\u002fScriptResx.ashx?culture=en\u00252Dus\u0026name=SP\u00252EUI\u00252EPolicy\u00252EResources\u0026rev=YhBHGmUAGyJ3lAgSdE4V\u00252Fw\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("mdn.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002fmdn.js?rev=gwmFFJ2\u00252FfFacqXWAqG\u00252FqKg\u00253D\u00253D");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "sp.core.js");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "sp.runtime.js");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "sp.js");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "cui.js");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "ribbon");RegisterSodDep("mdn.js", "sp.ui.policy.resources.resx");</script>
<script type="text/javascript">
//<![CDATA[

function _spNavigateHierarchyEx(nodeDiv, dataSourceId, dataPath, url, listInContext, type, additionalQString) {
    SetAdditionalNavigateHierarchyQString(additionalQString);
    g_originalSPNavigateFunc(nodeDiv, dataSourceId, dataPath, url, listInContext, type);
}

g_originalSPNavigateFunc = _spNavigateHierarchy;
_spNavigateHierarchy = _spNavigateHierarchyEx;
var _fV4UI = true;//]]>
</script>
<script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("msstring.js", "\u002f_layouts\u002f1033\u002fmsstring.js?rev=QtiIcPH3HV7LgVSO7vONFg\u00253D\u00253D");</script><script type="text/javascript">RegisterSod("browserScript", "\u002f_layouts\u002f1033\u002fnon_ie.js?rev=EVTj1bu32\u00252FMla6SDN\u00252FsNTA\u00253D\u00253D");</script>
<script type="text/javascript">
//<![CDATA[
var __wpmExportWarning='This Web Part Page has been personalized. As a result, one or more Web Part properties may contain confidential information. Make sure the properties contain information that is safe for others to read. After exporting this Web Part, view properties in the Web Part description file (.WebPart) by using a text editor such as Microsoft Notepad.';var __wpmCloseProviderWarning='You are about to close this Web Part.  It is currently providing data to other Web Parts, and these connections will be deleted if this Web Part is closed.  To close this Web Part, click OK.  To keep this Web Part, click Cancel.';var __wpmDeleteWarning='You are about to permanently delete this Web Part.  Are you sure you want to do this?  To delete this Web Part, click OK.  To keep this Web Part, click Cancel.';//]]>
</script>
</form>

Skip to Main Content

03 Jun 2019Working Paper Summaries

Memory and Representativeness

by Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter, and Andrei Shleifer

We explore the foundations of individuals’ probabilistic judgments, looking to better understand the sources of systematic errors. We conduct a laboratory experiment where participants view abstract images and are then asked to recall what they saw. We find evidence that interference in episodic memory contributes to biased probabilistic judgments.

Author Abstract

We explore the idea that judgment by representativeness reflects the workings of episodic memory, especially interference. In a new laboratory experiment on cued recall, participants are shown two groups of images with different distributions of colors. We find that i) decreasing the frequency of a given color in one group significantly increases the recalled frequency of that color in the other group and ii) for a fixed set of images, different cues for the same objective distribution entail different interference patterns and different probabilistic assessments. Selective retrieval and interference may offer a foundation for the representativeness heuristic, but more generally for understanding the formation of probability judgments from experienced statistical associations.

Paper Information

Full Working Paper Text
Working Paper Publication Date: March 2019
HBS Working Paper Number: NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25692
Faculty Unit(s): Negotiation, Organizations & Markets

Trending

- 17 May 2017
- Research & Ideas
Minorities Who 'Whiten' Job Resumes Get More Interviews
- 26 Jun 2020
- Research & Ideas
Why Japanese Businesses Are So Good at Surviving Crises
- 16 Jul 2018
- Research & Ideas
Kids of Working Moms Grow into Happy Adults
- 16 Jun 2020
- Coronavirus
Your Customers Have Changed. Here's How to Engage Them Again.
- 06 Jan 2020
- Research & Ideas
Motivate Your High Performers to Share Their Knowledge

Katherine B. Coffman

Katherine B. Coffman

Assistant Professor of Business Administration

Contact

→ More Articles

Find Related Articles

Sign up for our weekly newsletter

Interested in improving your business? Learn about fresh research and ideas from Harvard Business School faculty.