Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Working Knowledge
Business Research for Business Leaders
  • Browse All Articles
  • Popular Articles
  • Cold Call Podcasts
  • About Us
  • Leadership
  • Marketing
  • Finance
  • Management
  • Entrepreneurship
  • All Topics...
  • Topics
    • COVID-19
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Finance
    • Gender
    • Globalization
    • Leadership
    • Management
    • Negotiation
    • Social Enterprise
    • Strategy
  • Sections
    • Book
    • Cold Call Podcast
    • HBS Case
    • In Practice
    • Lessons from the Classroom
    • Op-Ed
    • Research & Ideas
    • Research Event
    • Sharpening Your Skills
    • What Do You Think?
    • Working Paper Summaries
  • Browse All
    • COVID-19 Business Impact Center
      COVID-19 Business Impact Center
      Observation Bias: The Impact of Demand Censoring on Newsvendor Level and Adjustment Behavior
      31 Jan 2012Working Paper Summaries

      Observation Bias: The Impact of Demand Censoring on Newsvendor Level and Adjustment Behavior

      by David F. Drake
      As the fundamental model for managing inventory under demand uncertainty, the newsvendor model has received significant research attention, but behavioral issues—the focus of this paper—have been less well studied. Nils Rudi and David Drake demonstrate how different aspects of the newsvendor model, a rather complex managerial decision setting, result in a combination of behavioral deviations from the normative solution prescribed within existing literature. The results can help managers prioritize order quantity improvements based on product margins and the degree of demand feedback available in the setting that they operate in. Key concepts include:
      • In general, changing how order quantity decisions are made preferably comes through training by building awareness of level and adjustment costs and their sources.
      • This research provides managers with insight into how adjusting order quantity policy over time and ordering at a suboptimal level combine to erode profits.
      • These results also provide guidance on which of sources of behavioral cost (adjustment cost and level cost) managers are likely to be most exposed to given a product's unit cost and margin and the degree of demand visibility.
      LinkedIn
      Email

      Author Abstract

      In an experimental newsvendor setting we investigate three phenomena: Level behavior—the decision-maker's average ordering tendency; adjustment behavior—the tendency to adjust period-to-period order quantities; and observation bias—the tendency to let the degree of demand feedback influence order quantities. We find that the portion of mismatch cost due to adjustment behavior exceeds the portion of mismatch cost due to level behavior in three out of four conditions. Observation bias is studied through censored demand feedback, a situation which arguably represents the majority of newsvendor settings. When demands are uncensored, subjects tend to order below the normative quantity when facing high margin and above the normative quantity when facing low margin, but in neither case beyond mean demand (a.k.a. the pull-to-center effect). Censoring in general leads to lower quantities, magnifying the below-normative level behavior when facing high margin but partially counterbalancing the above-normative level behavior when facing low margin, violating the pull-to-center effect in both cases.

      Paper Information

      • Full Working Paper Text
      • Working Paper Publication Date: December 2011
      • HBS Working Paper Number: 12-042
      • Faculty Unit(s): Technology and Operations Management
        Trending
          • 25 Feb 2019
          • Research & Ideas

          How Gender Stereotypes Kill a Woman’s Self-Confidence

          • 17 May 2017
          • Research & Ideas

          Minorities Who 'Whiten' Job Resumes Get More Interviews

          • 24 Feb 2021
          • Lessons from the Classroom

          What History's Biggest Wars Teach Us About Leading in Peace

          • 17 Feb 2021
          • Research & Ideas

          Pandemic Self-Care for CEOs: Rituals, Running, and Cognitive Restructuring

          • 22 Feb 2021
          • Book

          Reaching Today's Omnichannel Customer Takes a New Sales Strategy

      Find Related Articles
      • Economics
      • Infrastructure

      Sign up for our weekly newsletter

      Interested in improving your business? Learn about fresh research and ideas from Harvard Business School faculty.
      ǁ
      Campus Map
      Harvard Business School Working Knowledge
      Baker Library | Bloomberg Center
      Soldiers Field
      Boston, MA 02163
      Email: Editor-in-Chief
      →Map & Directions
      →More Contact Information
      • Make a Gift
      • Site Map
      • Jobs
      • Harvard University
      • Trademarks
      • Policies
      • Digital Accessibility
      Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College