Skip to Main Content
HBS Home
  • About
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
Working Knowledge
Business Research for Business Leaders
  • Browse All Articles
  • Popular Articles
  • Cold Call Podcasts
  • About Us
  • Leadership
  • Marketing
  • Finance
  • Management
  • Entrepreneurship
  • All Topics...
  • Topics
    • COVID-19
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Finance
    • Gender
    • Globalization
    • Leadership
    • Management
    • Negotiation
    • Social Enterprise
    • Strategy
  • Sections
    • Book
    • Cold Call Podcast
    • HBS Case
    • In Practice
    • Lessons from the Classroom
    • Op-Ed
    • Research & Ideas
    • Research Event
    • Sharpening Your Skills
    • What Do You Think?
    • Working Paper Summaries
  • Browse All
    • COVID-19 Business Impact Center
      COVID-19 Business Impact Center
      The Impact of Supply Learning on Customer Demand: Model and Estimation Methodology
      19 Oct 2010Working Paper Summaries

      The Impact of Supply Learning on Customer Demand: Model and Estimation Methodology

      by Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman
      "Supply learning" is the process by which customers predict a company's ability to fulfill product orders in the future using information about how well the company fulfilled orders in the past. A new paper investigates how and whether a customer's assumptions about future supplier performance will affect the likelihood that the customer will order from that supplier in the future. Research, based on data from apparel manufacturer Hugo Boss, was conducted by Nathan Craig and Ananth Raman of Harvard Business School, and Nicole DeHoratius of the University of Portland. Key concepts include:
      • Two key measures of supplier performance include "consistency", which is the likelihood that a company will continue to keep items in stock and meet demand, and "recovery", which is the likelihood that a company will deliver on time in spite of past stock-outs.
      • Improvements in consistency and recovery are associated with increases in orders from retail customers.
      • Increasing the level of service may lead to an increase in orders, even when the service level is already nearly perfect.
      LinkedIn
      Email

      Author Abstract

      To set service levels, firms must understand how changes in service affect customer demand. Supply learning is a process whereby customers use past supplier performance to build beliefs about supplier capabilities and hence about future supplier performance. This paper presents a multi-period model of service level competition among suppliers selling substitutable products to a customer that engages in supply learning. We observe how a supplier's service level performance molds a customer's beliefs as well as how a customer's beliefs affect its order quantities. We identify two dimensions of supplier performance: consistency, the probability that a supplier delivers in the current period conditional on availability in the prior period, and recovery, the probability that a supplier delivers in the current period conditional on a stockout in the prior period. We also provide a method for estimating the impact of changes in supplier performance along these two dimensions on customer demand. Using data from Hugo Boss, a manufacturer of branded apparel, we find increases in consistency and recovery to be associated with increases in orders from Hugo Boss's retailer customers.

      Paper Information

      • Full Working Paper Text
      • Working Paper Publication Date: September, 2010
      • HBS Working Paper Number: 11-034
      • Faculty Unit(s): Technology and Operations Management
          Trending
            • 29 Oct 2020
            • Research & Ideas

            The COVID Gender Gap: Why Fewer Women Are Dying

            • 13 Jul 2020
            • Research & Ideas

            Merck CEO Ken Frazier Discusses a COVID Cure, Racism, and Why Leaders Need to Walk the Talk

            • 13 Jan 2021
            • Research & Ideas

            How 'Small C' Change Can Beat Large-Scale Rebuilding

            • 11 Jan 2021
            • Research & Ideas

            Is A/B Testing Effective? Evidence from 35,000 Startups

            • 25 Feb 2019
            • Research & Ideas

            How Gender Stereotypes Kill a Woman’s Self-Confidence

        Ananth Raman
        Ananth Raman
        UPS Foundation Professor of Business Logistics
        Chair, OPM
        Contact
        Send an email
        → More Articles
        Find Related Articles
        • Infrastructure
        • Logistics
        • Supply Chain
        • Apparel and Accessories
        • Fashion
        • Europe

        Sign up for our weekly newsletter

        Interested in improving your business? Learn about fresh research and ideas from Harvard Business School faculty.
        ǁ
        Campus Map
        Harvard Business School Working Knowledge
        Baker Library | Bloomberg Center
        Soldiers Field
        Boston, MA 02163
        Email: Editor-in-Chief
        →Map & Directions
        →More Contact Information
        • Make a Gift
        • Site Map
        • Jobs
        • Harvard University
        • Trademarks
        • Policies
        • Digital Accessibility
        Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College